America swung right into a $576 million commerce surplus with Nigeria within the first half of 2025, reversing a deficit of $779 million in the identical interval of 2024.
Recent knowledge from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Financial Evaluation reveal that stronger American exports into Nigeria and weaker Nigerian shipments to the U.S. powered the reversal.
This marks a big turnaround in U.S.–Nigeria commerce relations, pushed largely by greater American exports into the Nigerian market and a moderation in imports from Africa’s greatest crude exporter.
Nigeria flips from deficit to surplus
The turnaround in U.S.–Nigeria commerce is placing. Between January and June 2025, U.S. exports to Nigeria rose by 41% year-on-year, climbing from $2.36 billion in H1 2024 to $3.34 billion in H1 2025. Imports moved in the other way, falling 12% from $3.14 billion to $2.76 billion. This swing of greater than $1.3 billion remodeled Nigeria from a deficit place to a web surplus companion for Washington.
The June month-to-month figures spotlight the sharpness of this shift. U.S. exports to Nigeria surged to $919 million, up 196% from $310 million in June 2024. Imports grew extra modestly, up 29% from $493 million to $639 million in the identical interval. Consequently, the month-to-month stability flipped from a $182 million deficit in June 2024 to a $280 million surplus in June 2025.
Behind the pattern is Nigeria’s rising reliance on U.S. manufactured items—starting from equipment and autos to prescription drugs—at a time when international trade shortage continues to choke native manufacturing.
Africa nonetheless drains U.S. stability regardless of surplus in opposition to Nigeria
Nigeria’s reversal did little to change the broader story of U.S.–Africa commerce. The continent as an entire nonetheless posted a deficit of $3.69 billion in opposition to the U.S. within the first half of 2025, barely worse than the $3.61 billion deficit in the identical interval of 2024.
- Whereas American exports to Africa jumped 29%, from $15.2 billion in H1 2024 to $19.7 billion in H1 2025, imports rose even quicker. They elevated by 24%, from $18.9 billion to $23.4 billion, outpacing exports in absolute phrases and sustaining Africa as a web drain on U.S. commerce books.
- The shift in Nigeria’s stability due to this fact stands out. Solely Egypt and Nigeria gave Washington surpluses in 2025, collectively contributing over $3.3 billion in constructive balances. Nonetheless, these positive factors weren’t sufficient to offset deep deficits elsewhere, particularly with South Africa and Algeria.
The regional image means that whereas U.S. items are penetrating African markets extra successfully, the continent’s commodity exports nonetheless outweigh U.S. shipments.
Nigeria versus friends
Evaluating Nigeria’s efficiency to its African friends reveals diverging outcomes. Egypt posted the most important African surplus for the U.S. at $2.73 billion in H1 2025, greater than doubling the $1.31 billion surplus in 2024. U.S. exports to Egypt grew 63% from $2.55 billion to $4.16 billion, whereas imports rose solely 15%, from $1.24 billion to $1.43 billion, tilting the stability closely in Washington’s favour.
South Africa moved in the other way. America’s deficit with the nation virtually doubled, widening from $3.38 billion in H1 2024 to $6.32 billion in H1 2025. Imports surged by 52%, from $6.24 billion to $9.50 billion, whereas exports inched up solely 11%, from $2.86 billion to $3.18 billion. This imbalance makes South Africa Washington’s most difficult African commerce companion.
Algeria remained destructive however barely improved, narrowing its deficit from $844 million in 2024 to $571 million in 2025, largely on account of a modest rise in U.S. exports and a drop in imports. In the meantime, the “Different Africa” class reversed a $77 million surplus in 2024 to a $108 million deficit this 12 months.
What it is best to know
The shift in America’s commerce stability with Nigeria comes in opposition to the backdrop of recent U.S. tariff measures on African companions. Starting August 7, 2025, Washington carried out “reciprocal tariffs” beneath a revised schedule that set Nigeria’s nation charge at 15%.
- Whereas Nigeria beforehand confronted a 14% tariff beneath the April “Liberation Day” order, the revised charge formalised the adjustment.
- South Africa and Algeria have been every assigned 30%, whereas Egypt remained on the 10% baseline, with its Qualifying Industrial Zone (QIZ) exports nonetheless having fun with duty-free entry.
- These tariffs add to current most-favoured-nation duties and are designed to reflect restrictions confronted by U.S. items within the affected markets.
The transfer has heightened strain on resource-driven exporters like Nigeria and Algeria, whereas widening America’s imbalance with South Africa in metals and autos. In contrast, Egypt’s place has been extra resilient, as its diversified exports and QIZ framework insulate key sectors from the steepest tariff impacts.