FCMB Group Plc has projected a revenue after tax (PAT) of N58.8 billion for the fourth quarter of 2025, based on its newest submitting on the Nigerian Trade (NGX).
The earnings forecast, a regulatory requirement for listed corporations, supplies buyers with a ahead view of anticipated efficiency and provides insights into how the bank is positioning itself forward of a difficult working surroundings.
If achieved, this projection would push FCMB’s full-year earnings to N171.5 billion, greater than double the N73 billion reported within the 2024 monetary yr.
Constantly beating forecasts
A glance again on the bank’s efficiency this yr reveals a constant sample of beating its personal projections.
- In Q1 2025, FCMB forecast a PAT of N31.2 billion however delivered N32.2 billion.
- In Q2, it forecast N36.6 billion however posted N41.1 billion.
- For Q3 (ending September 30, 2025), it had projected N39.3 billion, with precise outcomes but to be formally launched.
This observe report means that its This fall forecast of N58.8 billion could also be conservative, doubtlessly offering extra upside for shareholders.
On the income facet, the lender expects gross earnings of N265.2 billion in This fall, with curiosity revenue contributing N231.8 billion.
Forbearance expiry and write-downs
One of many main challenges FCMB confronted this yr was the expiry of the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) mortgage forbearance regime, which compelled banks to totally acknowledge beforehand deferred impairments.
- In H1 2025, FCMB reported a complete earnings write-down of N36.2 billion, with N26.7 billion of that booked in Q2 alone—far above its forecast of N11.3 billion.
- Regardless of this heavy provisioning, the bank nonetheless managed to beat revenue forecasts, highlighting operational resilience.
- Administration disclosed that the bank has now absolutely exited forbearance, implying no additional main impairment shocks forward. Because the bank defined in its H1 outcomes:
“Web impairment loss on monetary property grew by 180% QoQ to N36.2 billion for the interval ended June 2025 as our Nigerian Banking subsidiary exited the CBN mortgage forbearance, which resulted in a development in price of threat to 2.8% from 1.8% recorded for FY 2024.”
Recapitalization drive: another lap to go
Like different Nigerian banks, FCMB faces a recapitalization deadline from the CBN.
- BusinessTimes estimates that the lender might want to increase about N188 billion extra to satisfy the regulatory threshold.
- The bank has already made important progress. In 2024, it raised N144.6 billion through a public provide.
- The CBN has since concluded the verification of the second section of this increase, which included a compulsory convertible be aware of about N22.5 billion, set to extend issued shares to round 42.8 billion models.
This extra buffer leaves FCMB higher positioned than lots of its friends, however the want for additional fundraising might deliver shareholder dilution dangers within the quick time period.
What you need to know
At a share value of N10.5 per share, FCMB trades at what seems to be a steep low cost relative to earnings.
- Primarily based on BusinessTimes’ estimate, FY 2025 earnings per share (EPS) might are available in round N4.30, implying a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of simply 2.44x.
- For context, the NGX Banking Index common P/E usually ranges between 3x–5x in current cycles.
- This makes FCMB comparatively undervalued on a pure earnings a number of foundation, although recapitalization dangers could also be weighing on investor sentiment.
If the bank delivers on its This fall forecast, its ahead EPS might strengthen its case as a “worth play” in Nigeria’s banking sector, notably for buyers snug with potential fairness dilution within the coming capital increase.
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