Nigeria’s recurrent debt profile overshot authorities projections by a staggering N1.63 trillion within the fourth quarter of 2024.
That is in line with the Price range Workplace of the Federation (BOF)’s This autumn 2024 Price range Implementation Report.
The report revealed that whole recurrent debt stood at N3.69 trillion, representing a rise of N1.63 trillion or 78.63 per cent above the N2.07 trillion projected for the quarter.
The sharp rise demonstrates mounting fiscal pressures pushed by rising curiosity funds and exterior debt servicing obligations.
In accordance with the Price range Workplace, there was no curiosity fee on Methods and Means in the course of the assessment interval because of the profitable securitization of the excellent steadiness earlier within the 12 months.
Nonetheless, debt service funds to home and exterior collectors continued to weigh closely on authorities funds.
A complete of N1.32 trillion was spent on servicing Federal Authorities home debt within the fourth quarter, barely N6.97 billion (0.53 per cent) above the prorated quarterly estimate. In the meantime, exterior debt service obligations far exceeded projections, with precise funds reaching N2.12 trillion in opposition to a projected N686.90 billion — a distinction of N1.42 trillion (207.14 per cent).
The report attributed the sharp soar in exterior debt service funds to alternate charge changes and maturing obligations below numerous bilateral and multilateral mortgage agreements.
N4.79 trillion budgeted for MDAs
Past debt obligations, the Price range Workplace offered updates on personnel and overhead expenditures.
It disclosed that N4.79 trillion was appropriated for the personnel prices of Ministries, Departments, and Businesses (MDAs) within the 2024 fiscal 12 months. This interprets to a prorated quarterly expenditure outlay of N1.2 trillion.
Precise spending, the report famous, met 100 per cent of the full-year projection, indicating that personnel bills had been totally funded as deliberate.
The report additionally acknowledged, “A complete of N671.15 billion was launched as overhead price within the fiscal yea,r which was N101.98 billion (13.98 per cent) decrease than the funds projection of N773.13 billion.”
What this implies
The numerous overshoot in Nigeria’s recurrent debt in This autumn 2024 demonstrates the rising pressure on the Federal Authorities’s fiscal place and the pressing want for tighter debt and expenditure administration.
First, the N1.63 trillion variance between projected and precise recurrent debt highlights how debt servicing prices are rising sooner than income development, particularly within the face of alternate charge depreciation and excessive exterior mortgage obligations. This development reduces the fiscal house obtainable for crucial capital tasks and social spending, leaving the federal government with restricted room to stimulate financial development.
Second, the large spike in exterior debt servicing funds—over 200 per cent above projections—alerts the vulnerability of Nigeria’s debt portfolio to alternate charge actions and world monetary situations. It additionally means that a good portion of Nigeria’s exterior debt is denominated in foreign exchange, making repayments costlier when the naira weakens.
Moreover, the 13.98 per cent shortfall in overhead releases suggests continued fiscal constraints, presumably reflecting authorities efforts to handle money stream amid rising debt servicing calls for. Nonetheless, the imbalance between recurrent and capital expenditure continues to be a structural weak spot in Nigeria’s public finance system.
What it is best to know
In its newest report, the Debt Administration Workplace (DMO) acknowledged that Nigeria’s whole home debt service reached N1.707 trillion within the second quarter of 2025 (April–June).
The information exhibits that the nation spent N1.686 trillion on curiosity funds throughout a number of debt devices and N20.14 billion on principal repayments, bringing the whole to N1,707,087,151,475.90 for the three-month interval.
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