The common value of cooking a pot of jollof rice throughout Nigerian cities dropped by 3.17% within the third quarter of 2025, in line with SBM Intelligence Nationwide Common Jollof Index.
The report, nevertheless, famous that whereas headline figures recommend slight aid, the actual value of meals stays out of attain for many households.
It added that the obvious enchancment was largely as a consequence of technical adjustments in how inflation is measured, not precise worth drops in markets.
Motive for prime costs
SBM Intelligence defined that the latest rebasing of Nigeria’s Shopper Worth Index (CPI) which modified the reference 12 months from 2009 to 2024 considerably altered the best way meals inflation is reported.
Below the brand new system, the year-on-year meals inflation fee for July 2025 was 22.74%, in comparison with 39.53% in July 2024 a 16.79 proportion level distinction.Nevertheless, the agency mentioned this drop doesn’t imply Nigerians are paying much less for meals.
“A major technical occasion influencing the notion of meals costs was the implementation of the rebasing of the Shopper Worth Index (CPI) basket, shifting the reference 12 months from 2009 to 2024. As a statistical consequence, the reported year-on-year (YoY) meals inflation fee for July 2025 was 22.74%, a considerable 16.79% level decline in comparison with the pre-rebased fee in July 2024 (39.53%).
Whereas statistically correct below the brand new measure, this determine compares in opposition to an already hyper-inflated 2024 worth baseline, not real consumer-level worth aid,” the report said
- In response to the report, relying closely on the technically lowered YoY determine dangers making a coverage credibility hole, which can divert crucial consideration and sources away from tackling the deep structural challenges that keep the critically excessive Jollof Index ground worth.
Casual taxes alongside Nigeria’s highways
Past statistical changes, SBM recognized insecurity is the most important menace to meals affordability in Nigeria, noting that the primary value pressures come from casual and security-related levies alongside main highways.
- As vehicles journey via completely different states, they steadily encounter police, customs, or native job forces demanding undocumented facilitation charges that may vary from N5,000 to N20,000 per journey.
- In lots of risky areas, merchants additionally pay for personal safety. For top-value items like rice, merchants typically pay vigilante teams or casual safety to accompany their vehicles via risky areas. These escorts value a further N10,000 to N50,000 per journey.
The report provides that dangerous roads proceed to worsen the state of affairs, resulting in car put on and tear, greater gasoline consumption, potential spoilage of perishables like tomatoes, and drivers demanding hazard bonuses.To deal with these challenges, merchants have adjusted their pricing mannequin.
“To account for this risky operational surroundings, merchants structurally embed these prices by including as much as 20-30% to the bottom value of the products when setting costs,” the report said.
SBM describes this as an unofficial, deeply entrenched tax on commerce, saying it displays a crucial failure of state safety to safe transit corridors.
Jellof worth variations
The report exhibits that the jellof continues to maneuver in a different way throughout Nigeria’s areas, reflecting how native insecurity and logistics prices form day by day realities.
- Within the North West, costs rose total, with Kano the regional hub hitting N30,950 for a pot of jollof rice. In response to the report, the fee and threat of shifting items overwhelm early harvest advantages within the legion.
- The North East noticed the sharpest decline, as Bauchi costs fell over 15% from N41,050 to N34,750, because of a pointy, localised inflow of early harvest yields.
- The North Central recorded a slight moderation in September, however the report warned that the moderation is fragile, being pushed by seasonal provide slightly than systemic safety enchancment.
- Within the South West, costs dropped modestly, with SBM noting that the area possible benefited marginally from a extra steady Naira, curbing the price of imported inputs.
- The South East remained one of the crucial costly areas. In Port Harcourt, the value rose to N33,200, as excessive value is domestically pushed by poor inside logistics and excessive operational prices regardless of being a port metropolis.
- For the South South, costs had been comparatively steady and excessive, with SBM attributing this to a reliance on provides from the risky North Central states and poor provide chain safety.
Suggestions
The report identifies insecurity as the first impediment to meals affordability in Nigeria and urges policymakers to look past the consolation of year-on-year inflation figures. The pressing suggestions are:
- Prioritise the restoration of safety in agricultural zones, viewing it as foundational financial infrastructure.
- Declare a state of emergency on key federal roads to cut back logistics prices and dismantle the structure of extortion (the unofficial checkpoints and unlawful escort methods).