Cocoa has fallen greater than 12% up to now in November, buying and selling at $5,401 per ton and increasing a downtrend that has continued from June via October.
This can be a sharp turnaround for a commodity that jumped 177% in 2024 to $11,675, earlier than slipping into a gentle decline from January 2025, regardless of short-lived recoveries in April and Could.
The November 2025 drop intensified after the Trump administration introduced a ten% reciprocal tariff discount on commodities not grown in the USA.
Analysts say enhancing climate throughout main West African producers, notably Ivory Coast and Ghana, has additional eased provide considerations.
Farmers in Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, informed reporters that extra beans are anticipated to succeed in the market in December, as many pods are actually practically ripe.
Average rainfall
Farmers say mild rainfall throughout Ivory Coast has boosted the expansion of many small and medium-sized cocoa pods forward of the seasonal Harmattan winds, which normally blow in from the Sahara between December and March.
They notice that mild to reasonable rains would assist prolong the primary crop and help a bigger harvest in contrast with final yr.
“The mild rains are serving to the bushes, however we nonetheless want rain till mid-December as a result of it is vitally scorching,” mentioned Donatien Adou, a farmer close to Yamoussoukro.
“There’s loads of cocoa on the bushes proper now, and we predict the harvest will stay robust into subsequent yr,” mentioned Salame Kone, who farms close to Soubre, the place 7.6 mm of rain fell final week, 12.3 mm beneath the common.
This can be a sharp distinction to the earlier yr, when heavy rains, notably within the southwest, intensified from late September, disrupting harvesting, complicating the drying course of, and delaying the transport of beans to ports.
These disruptions despatched costs hovering, contributing to an 80% year-to-date rise by mid-October 2024.
Market development in 2025
Cocoa started 2025 at $10,950 however shortly got here beneath robust bearish stress, falling beneath the $8,000 vary after the primary quarter to $7,888.
The market noticed a short rebound within the second quarter, rising greater than 16%, with April and Could delivering the one constructive month-to-month performances of the yr and accounting for a lot of the quarter’s features.
This restoration was short-lived. Costs turned damaging once more in June and continued to say no via the third quarter, slipping beneath $7,500, with September recording the steepest losses.
The downtrend prolonged into October, with cocoa falling greater than 8% to $6,151 and the weak point persisting in November, as costs now sit beneath the $6,000 mark at $5,403, down over 12% up to now this month.
Total, cocoa has dropped greater than 50% year-to-date.