Nigeria recorded a considerable discount in headline inflation in October 2025, whilst month-to-month value momentum elevated.
The nationwide Client Value Index, which measures the inflation price in an economic system, rose to 128.9 in October, up from 127.7 in September.
Key Indicators
| Inflation Measure | September 2025 | October 2025 | Course | What It Means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Headline YoY | 18.02% | 16.05% | ⬇ Enchancment | Value pressures easing in comparison with 2024 |
| Headline MoM | 0.72% | 0.93% | ⬆ Rising month-to-month pressure | Costs are nonetheless growing quicker |
| Annual Common | 32.26% | 22.02% | ⬇ Deep decline | Earlier shock interval falling out of base |
| CPI Index | 127.7 | 128.9 | ⬆ | Greater price of residing continues |
Backside line: Inflation is slowing relative to final yr, however Nigerians are nonetheless paying extra each month.
What Is Driving Inflation?
Yr-on-Yr Contributions to Headline Charge
(Affect on the whole 16.05%)
| Division | Contribution |
|---|---|
| Meals & Non-Alcoholic Drinks | 6.42% |
| Eating places & Lodging | 2.07% |
| Transport | 1.71% |
| Housing, Utilities & Vitality | 1.35% |
| Schooling | 1.00% |
| Well being | 0.97% |
➡ Meals stays the number-one strain level, accounting for 40%+ of complete inflation.
Month-on-Month Value Drivers
(Affect on the +0.93% MoM rise)
| Division | Contribution |
|---|---|
| Meals | 0.37% |
| Eating places & Lodging | 0.12% |
| Transport | 0.10% |
| Vitality & Utilities | 0.08% |
| Schooling & Well being | 0.06 every |
➡ City-service inflation (eating places, education, well being) is ramping up.
Meals Inflation: The Actual Story for Households
| Interval | Charge | Pattern |
|---|---|---|
| YoY | 13.12% | ⬇ Drastic drop from 39.16% final yr |
| MoM | -0.37% | ⬆ From -1.57% in September |
Though annual meals inflation has improved on account of sturdy base results, month-to-month meals costs are rising once more, primarily on account of:
-
Greens (ugu, okazi)
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Onions
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Fruits (orange, pineapple)
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Groundnuts
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Shrimp and livestock meats
Households stay extremely susceptible as risky necessities transfer upward once more.
City vs Rural Inflation
| Class | YoY | MoM | Perception |
|---|---|---|---|
| City | 15.65% | 1.14% | Transport & housing driving steep month-to-month will increase |
| Rural | 15.86% | 0.45% | Native provide dampens value build-up |
➡ Cities are struggling quicker price will increase, particularly in providers and logistics.
Coverage Interpretation
The report sends blended indicators for policymakers:
| Constructive | Unfavourable |
|---|---|
| Sturdy YoY disinflation reveals reforms are working | MoM acceleration reveals pressures aren’t but below management |
| Annual common inflation sharply decrease | Meals provide disruptions nonetheless persistent |
| FX stability enhancing | Vitality & transport stay cost-push threat components |
The Central Bank is more likely to:
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Keep tight financial stance
-
Delay discussions of price easing
-
Demand extra structural intervention from fiscal authorities
Key Dangers Forward
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Gas/logistics prices rising into dry season
-
FX instability returning if inflows weaken
-
Meals provide chains uncovered to insecurity
-
Tuition and school-cost changes subsequent quarter
Any certainly one of these can reverse current YoY features.
Nigeria is experiencing statistical reduction — not financial reduction. Costs are nonetheless rising every month, whilst annual inflation appears to be like higher on paper.
Actual enchancment will solely be felt when month-to-month inflation constantly falls towards zero and meals costs stabilise for households.