Nigeria’s oil manufacturing is anticipated to report a modest uptick in 2026, buoyed by infrastructure enhancements and incremental area output.
That is in accordance with a brand new outlook by BMI, a Fitch Options firm titled “Rebound in home demand will drive Nigerian financial system in 2026”.
The agency forecasts that whole liquid hydrocarbons will common 1.73 million barrels per day (b/d) subsequent 12 months, representing a 1.9% rise from the estimated 1.70mn b/d in 2025 and surpassing the nation’s official OPEC manufacturing quota of 1.50mn b/d.
Nairametrics reported that Nigeria has fallen in need of assembly its OPEC-assigned manufacturing quota for the third consecutive month—the final time the nation met its goal was in July 2025.
Nigeria’s crude oil output rose solely marginally in October, rising to 1.401 million barrels per day (bpd) from the 1.39 million bpd recorded in September.
OPEC information reveals that Nigeria averaged 1.444 million bpd within the third quarter (Q3) of 2025, marking a decline from the 1.481 million bpd recorded in Q2 and 1.468 million bpd in Q1.
These figures reveal Nigeria’s persistent challenges in sustaining a full manufacturing restoration, regardless of recent investments, renewed safety efforts, and ongoing authorities interventions aimed toward stabilising the upstream sector.
Nevertheless, BMI attributes the anticipated improve to midstream infrastructure upgrades, ongoing debottlenecking efforts, and extra volumes from smaller oil fields.
Operational disruptions at Dangote refinery may pressure a rebound in gas imports
The report additionally highlights the numerous affect of the Dangote Refinery, which has already decreased Nigeria’s dependence on imported petroleum merchandise by 2025, easing stress on overseas alternate demand.
The report famous, “The Dangote refinery has considerably decreased Nigeria’s reliance on imported gas by 2025 and improved overseas alternate liquidity. Whereas we count on this to proceed in 2026, any operational delays or disruptions would preserve gas imports higher-than-expected, worsening FX pressures and inflation, which might dampen Nigeria’s progress outlook.”
Past the oil and refining sectors, BMI flags Nigeria’s deteriorating safety atmosphere as a mounting menace to progress. The nation has skilled a pointy rise in kidnapping incidents in 2025, putting extra pressure on an already fragile safety panorama.
In accordance with the analysts, additional deterioration would possible disrupt each agricultural manufacturing and oil output, two of the nation’s most crucial progress drivers. Elevated insecurity would additionally deter funding and compel the federal government to allocate extra assets to safety operations, leaving fewer funds out there for infrastructure, social programmes, and improvement initiatives.
On the exterior entrance, BMI warns that geopolitical tensions may amplify financial dangers. Ought to relations between Nigeria and the USA worsen in 2026—significantly within the wake of allegations by U.S. President Donald Trump relating to unsubstantiated claims of Christian persecution—Washington may take into account punitive financial measures comparable to larger tariffs and even sanctions.
Such actions, BMI observes, would threaten Nigeria’s oil exports, prohibit entry to U.S. financing and markets, and undermine investor confidence.
What you need to know
In its newest report, the Nigerian Nationwide Petroleum Firm Restricted (NNPC Ltd) mentioned crude oil manufacturing skilled a slight dip, falling to 1.58 million barrels of oil per day (mmbopd) in October from 1.61 mmbopd in September.
The report reveals that manufacturing hit 6,997 million normal cubic toes per day (mmscf/d) in October, up from 6,284 mmscf/d in September.
Fuel gross sales, reported on an M-2 foundation, climbed to 4,713 mmscf/d, marking a major improve from 3,443 mmscf/d recorded within the earlier month.
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