Nigeria’s inflation trajectory could also be approaching a serious turning level with projections indicating a potential return to single-digit ranges by January 2026, in accordance with Ayo Teriba, Chief Government Officer of Financial Associates.
Teriba’s outlook is anchored on a mix of easing worth pressures, seasonal consumption patterns, and up to date macroeconomic changes which are starting to replicate in headline inflation knowledge.
He famous that the ultimate quarter of the yr, typically characterised by elevated shopper spending, may also set off short-term worth moderation in choose meals and repair classes as a result of improved provide flows and market competitors.
Nigeria’s inflation has remained elevated for a number of years, pushed by foreign money volatility, power worth changes, logistics bottlenecks, and meals provide disruptions.
Nevertheless, current indicators recommend that a few of these pressures are regularly stabilising. Trade-rate reforms, improved international trade liquidity, and tighter financial circumstances are starting to dampen extra demand, whereas agricultural harvest cycles are contributing to meals worth moderation.
Teriba highlighted that seasonal demand patterns related to year-end actions may briefly soften inflationary pressures, particularly in meals markets the place provide usually improves throughout this era.
Whereas these results is probably not everlasting, they may present enough momentum for inflation to development downward into early 2026.
The projection additionally displays expectations that fiscal and financial coordination will stay comparatively disciplined within the coming months.
Sustained coverage consistency, alongside cautious authorities spending and managed liquidity progress, is seen as vital to sustaining the downward inflation path past short-term seasonal results.
Regardless of the optimistic outlook, Teriba cautioned that inflation sustainability will rely on structural components, together with power provide stability, transport infrastructure, safety circumstances affecting meals manufacturing, and the power of the naira to take care of relative stability within the international trade market.
If realised, a return to single-digit inflation would mark Nigeria’s lowest inflation degree in a number of years and will considerably enhance shopper buying energy, investor confidence, and total financial planning.
Nevertheless, analysts broadly agree that sustaining such ranges would require continued reforms and cautious macroeconomic administration nicely past January 2026.
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