Nigeria’s public debt is projected to rise to 34.68 per cent of Gross Home Product (GDP) by the tip of 2026, with the trajectory anticipated to stay sustainable amid improved trade charge stability.
The projection is contained within the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook for Nigeria.
This, in line with the CBN, exhibits a slight improve from the 33.98 per cent recorded at end-June 2025, reflecting anticipated new borrowings underneath continued discretionary fiscal coverage actions.
Regardless of the rise, the apex bank stated the nation’s debt outlook stays secure, as key drivers of debt accumulation lately—significantly trade rate-related valuation results—are anticipated to weaken in 2026.
What the information is saying
Based on the CBN, Nigeria’s public debt-to-GDP ratio is projected at 34.68 per cent by end-2026, in contrast with 33.98 per cent at end-June 2025.
“The general public debt is anticipated to stay on a sustainable path in 2026. It’s projected at 34.68 per cent of GDP by end-2026 in contrast with 33.98 per cent at end-June 2025,” the apex bank acknowledged.
The CBN added that the revaluation impact on public debt, which dominated debt progress between 2023 and 2025 attributable to sharp trade charge actions, is predicted to slim considerably in 2026 owing to improved trade charge stability.
The apex bank defined that trade charge modifications have been the principle contributor to debt progress from 2023 to 2025, as foreign money depreciation inflated the naira worth of foreign-denominated debt.
Nevertheless, it stated this development is predicted to taper in 2026, lowering the affect of valuation losses on the general debt inventory.
“With these valuation losses easing, debt progress will rely much less on one-off changes and extra on conventional elements like the first stability, supported by the Tax Act of 2025 and actual financial progress,” CBN famous.
The outlook, in line with CBN, is supported by anticipated tax reforms and stronger progress, which ought to enhance revenues and cut back reliance on trade rate-driven debt progress.
What this implies
The shift away from trade rate-induced debt progress means that Nigeria’s public debt dynamics in 2026 will likely be formed extra by core fiscal fundamentals than by exterior shocks.
Sustained trade charge stability, stronger revenues, and progress may enhance debt service capability, decrease borrowing prices, and strengthen confidence in Nigeria’s medium-term debt sustainability.
What you must know
Earlier, the World Bank projected that Nigeria’s public debt would fall beneath 40% of GDP for the primary time in over a decade.
Based on the World Bank’s October 2025 Nigeria Growth Replace (NDU) themed ‘From Coverage to Individuals: Bringing the Reform Good points Dwelling’, financial progress is predicted to rise modestly from 4.2% in 2025 to 4.4% in 2027.
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