Nigeria’s inflation charge is projected to rise to 32.34% year-on-year in December 2025, as elevated festive-season demand and the statistical impact of the rebased Shopper Value Index mix to elevate worth pressures.
Analysts at Stanbic IBTC Bank additionally estimate month-on-month inflation at 1.44%, equal to a CPI stage of 132.34 for the month.
The projection is contained within the newest Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria Buying Managers’ Index (PMI) report compiled by S&P International, which tracks private-sector enterprise situations.
In accordance with the bank’s analysis staff, the anticipated inflation pickup displays greater December spending patterns, particularly on shopper items and companies, alongside the base-effect affect of the rebased CPI from the identical interval a yr earlier.
This implies the year-on-year determine could seem considerably greater than underlying month-to-month modifications alone would indicate.
What the report is saying
In his remark within the report, Muyiwa Oni, the Head of Fairness Analysis West Africa at Stanbic IBTC Bank, stated, “Whereas total enter costs (64.4 vs November: 61.9) elevated sharply in December from the close to five-year low posted in November, the speed of inflation was weaker than the 2025 common. Due to this excessive enter price, promoting costs additionally elevated in December, with probably the most vital worth improve seen within the Manufacturing sector.”
He added that the pickup in inflationary pressures in December could also be related to the upper spending patterns related to the December festive interval.
“And so, inflation ought to improve m/m and y/y in December, though the y/y improve is more likely to be vital on account of a low-base impact from the corresponding interval of the prior yr – an end result of the nation’s rebased CPI.
“Subsequently, we estimate inflation at 1.44% m/,m which suggests a CPI of 132.34, and y/y headline inflation of 32.34% in December,” he stated.
Regardless of the rising price outlook, enterprise exercise remained optimistic on the finish of 2025. The headline PMI got here in at 53.5 in December, solely marginally beneath 53.6 in November, signalling one other stable enchancment in private-sector working situations. A PMI studying above 50 signifies enlargement.
December marked the thirteenth consecutive month of progress, broadly in keeping with the yr’s common development. Buyer demand strengthened, leading to one other improve in new orders, whereas output expanded throughout all 4 monitored sectors, led by agriculture.
Companies additionally stepped up buying exercise and stock accumulation in response to rising gross sales.
Employment progress, nevertheless, was solely marginal and the weakest since June 2025. Companies additionally recorded an extra rise in unfinished work, attributed to energy constraints and materials shortages.
Enterprise confidence rebounds strongly
One of many standout developments was a marked enchancment in enterprise sentiment, which rose to a six-month excessive. Round 59% of surveyed companies anticipate output to rise over the approaching yr, supported by plans to increase operations, open new branches, and improve export exercise.
Suppliers’ supply occasions improved once more, though on the slowest tempo in six months, with some companies citing street challenges, whereas others reported quicker deliveries linked to immediate funds and diminished visitors bottlenecks.
Past the rapid inflation image, the bank’s analysis staff forecasts GDP progress of three.8% in 2025 and 4.1% in 2026. The manufacturing and companies sectors are anticipated to increase additional, supported by authorities funding programmes, trade-facilitation efforts, and the forward-linkage affect of the Dangote refinery on related industries.
Stabilising exchange-rate situations and potential moderation in rates of interest, if inflation later tendencies downward, are additionally anticipated to assist personal consumption and enterprise funding heading into 2026.
What it is best to know
Nigeria’s headline inflation charge moderated to 14.45% in November 2025, marking a big slowdown from the 16.05% recorded in October 2025, in response to figures launched by the Nationwide Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The decline of 1.6 proportion factors month-on-month alerts easing worth pressures throughout the financial system after a number of months of elevated inflation.
The NBS additionally famous that headline inflation decreased in comparison with the identical month final yr, though this comparability is predicated on a special base yr (November 2009).
Be First to Comment