If everything is broken down into small pieces, then the goal of a trillion-dollar economy remains a myth – CFG

Nigeria’s ambition to become a trillion-dollar economy remains unrealistic without structural reforms that can improve productivity, enhance purchasing power, and ensure long-term growth.

This is the view expressed by CFG Consulting at the monthly forum of the Financial Journalists Association of Nigeria (FICAN). At the forum, the company released its 2026 economic forecast entitled “ The Urgency of Action – Reforms Leading Productivity-Driven Growth.”

At the forum, CFG Consulting CEO Tilewa Adebajo stated that Nigeria has the potential to become a $2 trillion or even $3 trillion economy, but must overcome its policy inconsistencies and macroeconomic instability.

At the FICAN forum, Adebajo emphasized that Nigeria’s trillion-dollar goal will remain an empty promise unless supported by a clear and targeted growth strategy. He explained that although Nigeria has shown signs of economic growth in the past, it has failed to maintain this momentum.

“Nigeria is already close to a trillion-dollar economy. At its peak, its GDP approached $700 billion. If it could have maintained annual growth of $20 billion, $40 billion, or even $50 billion, it could have broken the trillion-dollar mark.”

• “However, the problem lies not in potential, but in its growth momentum. Nigeria’s economic development over the past two decades has been characterized by alternating periods of growth and recession, inconsistent economic policies, and a fragile macroeconomy.”

• “Despite government officials’ confident pronouncements of trillion-dollar ambitions, the harsh reality of growth paints a sobering picture: without sustainable growth of 8% to 10% annually, such goals remain mere fantasies.”

• “To achieve a trillion-dollar economy in the short term, an annual growth rate of nearly 18% is needed—a level Nigeria is currently far from reaching.”

• He warned that Nigeria risks confusing political stability with actual growth, and that without productivity improvements, the gap between ambition and reality will only widen.

Review

Nigeria has long aspired to expand its economy to compete with global rivals possessing similar resources. However, a series of political missteps, macroeconomic fluctuations, and inconsistent reforms have hampered economic development.

In the early 2010s, GDP, after recalculation, surged to nearly $574 billion.

• Subsequently, a plunge in oil prices, a currency crisis, and soaring inflation undermined sustainable growth.
• In less than a decade, the country experienced two recessions and is still grappling with high unemployment and weak industrial output.
• While the reforms of the Tinub government brought some stability, they have not yet translated into significant productivity gains.
• This demonstrates that growth must be patiently built, not empty promises.

Importance:

Despite macroeconomic stability achieved in some areas, Adebajo warns that a real impact will only occur when Nigerians are able to use their income to buy more goods.

He says Nigeria is currently trapped in a “pocket economy,” a term describing a sharp decline in consumer purchasing power. For the past two years, government policy has focused on stabilizing the weak macroeconomic environment. This goal is widely believed to have been achieved. Inflation (whose measurement remains controversial) is generally trending downward. However, economic growth remains sluggish and uneven, barely keeping pace with population growth. This pressure is most evident in declining purchasing power. Consumer goods are increasingly being sold in smaller, more manageable portions, a prominent feature of daily life. This is a market reaction to declining real income and a strong signal of economic saturation and stagnant growth.

He also points to a contradiction in monetary policy: “If inflation really has fallen to 15%, why is the key interest rate still almost twice that? This distortion suggests that the economy is prioritizing nominal stability over real growth.” Admittedly—this is a compromise Nigeria can no longer afford. Information you should know:

• President Tinub has set a target of increasing Nigeria’s GDP to $1 trillion by 2030 to attract investment and improve the quality of life for its citizens.

• Nigeria’s GDP in 2024 was recalculated at 372.8 trillion Naira, approximately $243 billion at the then-current exchange rate.

• Nigeria’s economy grew by 3.98% in the third quarter of 2025, while global economic growth is projected at 4.2% in 2026 due to recent reforms.

• CFG Consulting emphasizes that to reach the $1 trillion target, the annual growth rate needs to more than double to 8% to 10%. Even higher growth rates are needed for accelerated expansion.

Adebayo stated, “Macroeconomic reforms are necessary, but not enough.” “Without targeted sectoral measures—such as developing domestic supply chains and boosting agricultural production—and funding for the capital budget, stability cannot bring prosperity.” Adebayo summarized Indonesia’s transformation as an example, stating, “Scaling up requires sustained policy and long-term investment, not empty talk.”