Nigeria’s crude oil manufacturing slipped barely to 1.422 million barrels per day (bpd) in December 2025, down from 1.436 million bpd in November.
That is in line with the most recent Organisation of Petroleum Exporting International locations’ (OPEC) Month-to-month Oil Market Report (MOMR) launched on Wednesday.
The information present that Africa’s largest oil producer has now missed its OPEC-assigned manufacturing quota for the fifth consecutive month, demonstrating persistent output challenges regardless of ongoing reforms within the upstream sector.
What the info is saying
OPEC knowledge point out that Nigeria final met its manufacturing quota in July 2025, with output remaining beneath goal from August by means of December.
Quarterly figures reveal a constant decline throughout 2025:
- Q1: 1.468 million bpd
- Q2: 1.481 million bpd
- Q3: 1.444 million bpd
- This fall: 1.42 million bpd
The downward development highlights structural and operational constraints affecting Nigeria’s oil manufacturing capability.
OPEC compiles manufacturing knowledge utilizing two approaches: direct communication from member nations and estimates from secondary sources akin to impartial power intelligence companies.
Whereas Nigeria’s output declined primarily based on direct communication knowledge, secondary sources cited by OPEC introduced a extra optimistic outlook.
In accordance with these secondary estimates, Nigeria produced 1.5 million bpd in December, a 1.35% improve from the 1.48 million bpd recorded in November.
Regardless of falling wanting its quota, Nigeria maintained its place as Africa’s largest oil producer, forward of Libya, which produced 1.37 million bpd throughout the identical interval.
On the broader OPEC stage, crude oil manufacturing by nations taking part within the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) averaged 42.83 million bpd in December 2025, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 238,000 bpd, primarily based on secondary supply knowledge.
Why this matter
Crude oil stays Nigeria’s largest supply of international trade earnings and authorities income.
Sustained underperformance in opposition to OPEC quotas limits the nation’s capacity to totally profit from greater international oil costs, at a time when fiscal pressures and international trade shortages persist.
The manufacturing hole additionally raises considerations about Nigeria’s capability to scale output at the same time as OPEC progressively relaxes provide restrictions.
What you need to know
Home figures paint a stronger image when condensate manufacturing is included.
In accordance with the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Fee (NUPRC) report titled “Crude Oil and Condensate Manufacturing 2025,” Nigeria’s mixed crude and condensate output averaged 1.64 million bpd within the first 11 months of 2025.
Condensates are excluded from OPEC quota calculations, explaining the disparity between OPEC-reported crude output and Nigeria’s home manufacturing figures.