The Centre for the Promotion of Non-public Enterprise (CPPE) has projected that Nigeria is poised to maneuver from macroeconomic stabilisation to a part of development in 2026.
That is in keeping with its newest report titled ‘Evaluation of the Nigerian Financial system in 2025 and Outlook for 2026’.
The CPPE tasks GDP development between 4.0 and 4.5 % in 2026, supported by moderating inflation and stronger non-oil sector efficiency.
What the report is saying
Within the report, Dr. Muda Yusuf, CEO of CPPE, mentioned reforms carried out in 2025 laid a strong basis for stability, with exchange-rate predictability, easing inflation, and improved investor confidence.
“With reform momentum sustained, Nigeria is anticipated to transition extra decisively from stabilisation to development,” Yusuf acknowledged.
The yr 2025 marked a turning level in Nigeria’s financial trajectory. The naira traded largely inside the N1,440–N1,500/US$ band, with periodic appreciation boosting enterprise confidence and easing imported inflation.
Inflation slowed sharply from 24.48% in January to 14.45% by November, aided by forex stability and improved provide circumstances. Shopper sentiment strengthened as a number of meals objects and imported items recorded outright worth declines.
Enterprise confidence additionally improved, with the NESG–Stanbic IBTC Enterprise Confidence Index remaining optimistic for a lot of the yr. Many companies that posted losses in 2024 returned to profitability in 2025.
Fiscal efficiency: Weak at federal stage, stronger in states
Regardless of stabilisation features, the report says federal fiscal efficiency remained weak. Debt-service obligations constrained funds execution, whereas oil sector underperformance led to missed income targets.
The report famous that the 2025 funds assumed US$75 per barrel oil worth and a pair of.06 million barrels per day (mbpd) manufacturing. Precise outcomes fell quick, with oil averaging US$66 per barrel and manufacturing nearer to 1.66 mbpd, undermining capital expenditure.
In distinction, sub-national governments recorded stronger fiscal outcomes, with improved liquidity, higher internally generated income (IGR), and simpler capital mission execution.
The companies sector remained Nigeria’s development driver, accounting for 53% of GDP by Q3 2025. Telecommunications, monetary companies, commerce, development, and actual property led the enlargement.
Manufacturing grew by simply 1.25%, constrained by energy deficits, logistics prices, and weak entry to finance. Agriculture grew 3.79%, contributing 31.21% of GDP, however insecurity and low productiveness restricted its export potential.
Outlook for 2026
CPPE forecasts stronger development in 2026, pushed by companies and supported by easing inflation. Yusuf famous that moderating inflation may enable for gradual financial easing, reducing curiosity charges and stimulating personal funding.
Capital markets are anticipated to profit from the potential itemizing of Dangote Refinery, which may deepen liquidity and entice portfolio inflows.
“Coverage credibility stays robust, reinforcing investor confidence and capital inflows,” Yusuf mentioned.
Dangers forward
Regardless of optimism, CPPE warned of a number of draw back dangers:
- Persistent insecurity affecting agriculture and logistics
- Oil worth and manufacturing volatility
- Structural constraints resembling excessive energy and logistics prices
- Debt service pressures, estimated at over N15 trillion in 2026 (about 50% of projected income)
- Exterior geopolitical tensions impacting commerce and capital flows
- Pre-election fiscal and political uncertainties
- Pushback towards tax reforms that might undermine income expectations
Dr. Yusuf concluded that 2025 supplied a basis of stability, whereas 2026 affords cautious optimism for development.
“If reform momentum is sustained and safety challenges are successfully addressed, 2026 may mark the start of a extra strong development part with tangible enhancements in residing requirements,” he mentioned.
What it is best to know
Earlier in December, CPPE had expressed issues over the delayed submission of the 2026–2028 Medium-Time period Expenditure Framework (MTEF), warning that the lag may undermine legislative scrutiny and weaken the credibility of Nigeria’s funds course of.
The organisation harassed that the Fiscal Duty Act (FRA) requires the MTEF to be transmitted to the Nationwide Meeting not less than 4 months earlier than the start of a brand new fiscal yr.
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