Nigeria’s home airline market recorded a decline in obtainable seats in December 2025, with whole capability dropping to 850,420 seats.
The figures are drawn from OAG’s Africa’s Aviation Market Month-to-month Airline Knowledge Updates for December 2025, which tracks airline capability throughout key African markets.
This represents a 7.5% year-on-year decline, reflecting diminished exercise throughout Nigeria’s home aviation sector.
What the report is saying
The OAG knowledge signifies that Nigeria recorded one of many steepest declines in home airline capability amongst main African markets. Out there seats dropped from 919,400 in December 2024 to 850,420 in December 2025.
By comparability, South Africa remained Africa’s largest home aviation market, recording 1,803,097 seats in December 2025, up from 1,686,956 seats a yr earlier, representing a 6.9% enhance.
“South Africa
- “Seats This Month 2024: 1686956
- “Seats This Month 2025: 1803097
- “% Change YoY: 6.9
“Nigeria
- “Seats This Month 2024: 919400
- “Seats This Month 2025: 850420
- “% Change YoY: -7.5,” the OAG report learn partly.
Kenya additionally posted progress, with home capability rising from 420,534 seats in December 2024 to 456,500 seats in December 2025, an 8.6% enhance.
Tanzania recorded one of many strongest expansions on the continent, rising from 326,990 seats to 415,130 seats, a 27% enhance.
Extra insights
In North Africa, Egypt noticed a modest rise from 382,157 seats to 391,736 seats, reflecting 2.5% progress, whereas Algeria recorded a stronger enlargement, growing from 308,039 seats to 388,731 seats, a 26.2% rise.
Morocco additionally expanded its home market, with seat capability rising from 215,149 to 240,499, representing an 11.8% enhance. In the meantime, Cape Verde recorded the quickest proportion progress, with capability rising from 69,493 seats to 92,924 seats, a 33.7% enhance.
Then again, Ethiopia skilled a contraction, with home seat capability declining from 401,972 to 389,562, whereas the Democratic Republic of Congo recorded one of many sharpest drops, falling from 142,201 seats to 101,598 seats throughout the identical interval.
What you need to know
The decline in Nigeria’s home seat capability stems from a number of challenges. Entry to dry-lease plane was restricted for years because of the nation’s blacklisting by the Aviation Working Group over non-compliance with the Cape City Conference. Previous defaults by some carriers additionally made leasing troublesome.
Nigeria has since complied with the Cape City Conference, elevating its rating from 49% to 75.5%, and the nation was faraway from the AWG watchlist in October 2024, permitting airways to entry international leasing markets.
Just one airline has certified for a dry-lease plane, which the Minister of Aviation introduced would arrive in October 2025. Different carriers proceed to depend on moist leases or purchases that may value as much as $80 million per plane.
Dry leasing is essential as a result of it permits airways to function plane beneath their very own crews and schedules. Not like moist leases, it provides carriers full management over flight operations, route planning, and prices. It’s broadly utilized by airways globally and is essential for increasing fleets effectively and sustaining constant home capability.
Excessive rates of interest and restricted financing prohibit plane acquisition. The dearth of wide-body MRO amenities forces airways to ferry planes overseas for servicing. Air Peace CEO Allen Onyema says ferrying can value $400,000 per journey, and plane can stay out of service for months.
Whereas there are ongoing MRO tasks by Air Peace, Ibom Air, and others, these amenities aren’t but operational, so downtime stays a problem.
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