Nigeria’s inflation trajectory for 2025 has been materially revised upward following the December 2025 Shopper Value Index methodology assessment by the Nationwide Bureau of Statistics, although the broader disinflation pattern stays intact.
A comparability of the CPI year-on-year collection revealed with the November 2025 report and the revised collection launched in December exhibits that inflation was increased in each single month from January to November 2025 than beforehand reported.
The change stems not from recent worth shocks, however from a statistical re-anchoring of the inflation base.
What precisely modified within the CPI methodology
Earlier than December, Nigeria’s year-on-year inflation charges for 2025 had been calculated utilizing a single-month reference base below the previous 2009 CPI construction. In December, the NBS rebased the CPI and adopted a 12-month common reference interval for 2024, setting the typical CPI for the 12 months to 100.
In line with the bureau, retaining the single-month base would have exaggerated year-on-year inflation as a result of base results, significantly on the finish of 2025. The revised method aligns Nigeria’s CPI framework with worldwide greatest observe and improves stability and comparability over time.
Crucially, the NBS famous that the change impacts already launched year-on-year inflation charges for January to November 2025, prompting a full recalibration of the inflation path.
Month-by-month: how inflation was revised increased in 2025
The revised CPI collection exhibits a constant upward adjustment throughout all months of 2025, with the biggest gaps showing earlier within the 12 months and regularly narrowing towards November.
In January 2025, inflation beforehand stood at 24.48% however was revised upward to 27.61%, a distinction of three.13 share factors.
For February, the speed moved from 23.18% to 26.27%, reflecting a 3.09 share level enhance.
In March, inflation was lifted from 24.23% to 27.35%, whereas in April was revised from 23.71% to 26.82%, each modifications barely above 3 share factors.
The sample continued into Could, the place inflation rose from 22.97% to 26.06%, and June, which moved from 22.22% to 25.29% below the revised methodology.
By mid-year, the hole started to slim modestly. July inflation was revised from 21.88% to 24.94%, and August from 20.12% to 23.14%.
Within the remaining quarter, the uplift turned smaller however remained important. September inflation elevated from 18.02% to twenty.98%, October from 16.05% to 18.97%, whereas November, initially reported at 14.45%, was revised sharply upward to 17.33%.
December nonetheless confirms easing, however from the next base
Regardless of the upward revisions, the December CPI report nonetheless confirms that inflation eased steadily by way of 2025. Headline inflation slowed additional to fifteen.15% in December 2025, down from the revised 17.33% in November, reinforcing the downward momentum.
What has modified is the extent, not the route. Underneath the revised methodology, inflation didn’t fall as rapidly as earlier knowledge instructed, that means worth pressures remained structurally increased for longer throughout the 12 months.
Why the revision issues for coverage and markets
The recalibration reshapes how Nigeria’s inflation story for 2025 is interpreted. Underneath the previous collection, inflation appeared to chill quickly.
- The revised knowledge present a extra gradual disinflation, with inflation staying above 20% till August and above 18% as late as October.
- Nonetheless, by December, it seems that the Federal Authorities has inched nearer to the 15% inflation goal it projected within the 2025 Appropriation Invoice submitted to the Nationwide Meeting in 2024.
- For policymakers, this helps a extra cautious studying of inflation dangers, particularly when calibrating financial coverage and assessing actual rates of interest. For traders and analysts, it gives a clearer baseline for evaluating Nigeria’s inflation dynamics with regional friends and historic tendencies.
The Worldwide Financial Fund (IMF) earlier endorsed Nigeria’s December 2025 inflation final result and the revised inflation methodology adopted by the NBS, describing the modifications as in step with worldwide greatest observe and supportive of macroeconomic stability.
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