CBN inflation expectations index drops as vitality, change fee lead drivers 

Nigeria’s inflation expectations index declined barely to 41.4 factors in January 2026 from 41.7 factors in December 2025, signalling a marginal enchancment in value sentiment throughout the economic system.

The most recent Inflation Expectation Survey launched by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) revealed a modest easing in outlook.

The event displays shifting perceptions amongst companies and households, whilst structural value pressures persist and key inflation drivers stay elevated.

The report signifies that companies recorded a notable softening in inflation sentiment in the course of the evaluation interval, whereas family expectations stayed broadly excessive.

It additionally highlights vitality, transportation, change fee actions, insecurity, and rates of interest as the highest drivers shaping value perceptions.

What the report is saying 

The January 2026 survey reveals that the slight moderation within the index was largely pushed by improved sentiment amongst companies. Enterprise inflation notion declined from 48.3 per cent in December 2025 to 45.2 per cent in January 2026.

• Microbusinesses recorded the best inflation notion at 51.2 per cent, reflecting their vulnerability to rising enter prices and logistics bills.
• Small companies posted the bottom notion at 40.8 per cent, suggesting comparatively stronger value administration or resilience.
• Rural households reported a 55.0 per cent inflation notion fee, barely greater than the 53.9 per cent recorded by city households.

The survey additional confirmed that almost all companies and households count on inflation to stay at about the identical stage over the following month, three months, and 6 months, indicating secure short-term ahead expectations regardless of persistent considerations.

Extra Insights 

Vitality prices emerged as probably the most cited driver of inflation notion in January 2026. Respondents linked gas and electrical energy costs to greater manufacturing, distribution, and repair supply prices throughout sectors.

• Transportation ranked because the second most influential issue, reflecting the continued pass-through of gas and car working prices into client costs.
• Alternate fee actions had been recognized as a key stress level, notably for companies reliant on imported inputs and completed items.
• Insecurity was additionally listed among the many main drivers, with respondents noting disruptions to agricultural output, provide chains, and market entry.
• Rates of interest accomplished the highest 5 considerations, as greater borrowing prices have an effect on enterprise growth and family spending energy.

What you must know 

Nigeria’s headline inflation eased sharply to fifteen.15 per cent in December 2025 following a methodological evaluation by the Nationwide Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The statistics company is predicted to launch the January 2026 inflation report subsequent week.

• The easing in headline inflation adopted changes to the Client Worth Index methodology.
• Market individuals are carefully watching the January information for affirmation of a sustained disinflation pattern.
• The CBN’s inflation expectations survey serves as a forward-looking indicator for policymakers and buyers.

The inflation expectations index is broadly monitored as a result of it gives perception into how value perceptions could form spending behaviour, wage negotiations, and enterprise pricing selections within the months forward.