Funding banking large Goldman Sachs has revised its oil worth outlook upward, projecting that Brent crude will common $60 per barrel within the fourth quarter of 2026.
The brand new forecast was contained within the bank’s newest commodities outlook launched on Sunday.
The projection offers contemporary context for Nigeria’s fiscal assumptions whilst the worldwide oil market faces surplus dangers and geopolitical uncertainties.
What the info is saying
Goldman Sachs raised its fourth-quarter 2026 oil worth estimates by $6, reflecting tighter inventories and shifting market fundamentals. The bank additionally adjusted its full-year projections upward in comparison with its earlier estimates.
- Brent crude is now projected to common $64 per barrel in 2026, up from an earlier forecast of $56.
- West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is forecast to common $60 per barrel, in comparison with a earlier estimate of $52.
- For the fourth quarter of 2026, Brent is projected at $60 per barrel, whereas WTI is anticipated to commerce at $56.
Goldman maintained its forecast of a 2.3 million barrels per day international oil surplus in 2026, reflecting offsetting 0.2 million barrels per day downgrades to each provide and demand.
The upward revision was largely attributed to decrease crude inventories throughout member nations of the Organisation for Financial Co-operation and Improvement, though the bank retained its base-case assumption of no main provide disruptions linked to Iran.
Extra Insights
Oil costs dipped by about one per cent on Monday as america and Iran ready for a 3rd spherical of nuclear negotiations, easing considerations over escalating geopolitical tensions. As of 0641 GMT, Brent crude futures traded at about $71 per barrel, whereas U.S. WTI futures stood at $65.75 per barrel.
- Goldman mentioned its $60 Brent forecast for the fourth quarter of 2026 displays a gradual unwinding of a $6 geopolitical threat premium if tensions ease.
- The bank additionally factored in a $5 decline in crude’s honest worth on account of rising OECD inventories.
- It expects OPEC+ to start a gradual enhance in output within the second quarter of 2026, noting that OECD inventories haven’t accrued considerably.
The bank warned that Brent may fall by as a lot as $5 and WTI by $8 within the fourth quarter of 2026 if sanctions aid for Iran or Russia unlocks further provide.
Regardless of the worth revisions, Goldman’s outlook underscores continued volatility, particularly given the absence of a decision to the Russia-Ukraine battle and barely weaker financial development projections in components of Asia.
What it is best to know
Goldman’s 2026 Brent projection aligns with Nigeria’s fiscal planning assumptions permitted in December 2025. The Federal Government Council adopted a benchmark oil worth of $64 per barrel for the 2026 price range.
The council permitted an oil manufacturing benchmark of two.6 million barrels per day for 2026.
A extra conservative 1.8 million barrels per day might be used for price range calculations.
An alternate price of N1,512 to the greenback was additionally adopted for the 2026 fiscal framework.
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