Nigeria’s January 2026 inflation fee is predicted to stay broadly flat or edge barely increased, in line with analysts who see restricted room for sharp moderation regardless of current value reduction in some segments of the market.
Early projections place the headline determine throughout the 15.15%–16.25% vary, reflecting a fragile stability between post-holiday easing in staple meals costs and protracted pressures from gas prices, seasonal provide changes, and import-linked items.
Whereas enhancing trade fee stability and moderating meals costs could help a gradual print, underlying structural value drivers might push the speed marginally increased.
Analysts notice that January’s final result will present an necessary early sign for first-quarter financial coverage choices, at the same time as evolving liquidity circumstances and supply-side dynamics proceed to form the inflation trajectory.
What specialists are saying
MD/CEO Arthur Steven Asset Administration Ltd, Mr Olatunde Amolegbe
Amolegbe provides a extra muted outlook, forecasting that inflation in January can be pretty secure or rise barely, inside 15.15% to 16.25%. In his phrases, “On inflation we see both the speed coming in flat of a slight upward nudge.”
He cites secure post-holiday meals and power costs, improved trade fee circumstances, and rising reserves as causes for a contained inflation surroundings.
Amolegbe additionally notes that with system liquidity rising, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) could preserve its present tight financial stance or lean towards additional tightening if inflation pressures persist. He finalized by saying,
- “Nevertheless growing system liquidity and its potential affect on inflation might prime the palms of the MPC to both preserve financial insurance policies at present ranges of lean in the direction of tightening.”
Head of Treasury, Odunniga Company Ltd, Olabode Odunniga
Odunniga expects Nigeria’s disinflation pattern to persist, supported by ongoing structural reforms, enhanced FX liquidity, and progress in home refining, which ought to cut back imported gas value pass-through.
- For him, “We count on Nigeria’s disinflation pattern to persist, underpinned by ongoing structural reforms, enhancing FX liquidity and exchange-rate stability, in addition to the ramp-up in home refining capability, which ought to materially cut back imported gas value pass-through.”
He initiatives that inflation is prone to peak in Q1 2026, partly as a consequence of base results, earlier than moderating over the remainder of the 12 months.
Additionally, he warns that trade fee volatility and agricultural provide uncertainty might problem the tempo of disinflation.
- In his phrases, “Nevertheless, there are dangers to this outlook. Alternate-rate volatility, the efficiency of the agricultural harvest, and protracted meals insecurity might exert upward strain on costs and problem the tempo of disinflation.”
BusinessTimes market survey insights
Based on the January 2026 Lagos bodily market survey carried out by BusinessTimes Analysis, there’s a combined however broadly moderating value pattern in contrast with December 2025. Costs for a lot of staples confirmed moderation in contrast with December 2025, with 49 of 68 tracked gadgets declining month-on-month.
Staple gadgets reminiscent of pepper, tomatoes, yams, potatoes, beans, and native palm oil recorded notable value drops, reflecting postfestive seasonal changes and improved provide flows.
Nevertheless, some protein and processed meals gadgets, together with horse mackerel, frozen hen, vegetable oil, and sure drinks, nonetheless recorded value will increase, indicating persistent pressures in choose subcategories. General, this sample suggests some moderation in meals inflation for January, although the decline could also be uneven as not all classes eased uniformly.
Elements that affected inflation in January 2026
- Gasoline value changes: Upward PMS costs exert speedy upward strain on transportation and power prices, shortly feeding into each core and meals inflation parts.
- Alternate fee dynamics: The current naira appreciation might, in idea, cut back imported inflation. Nevertheless, present import contracts, stock cycles, and pricing rigidities could delay the total transmission of forex positive factors to client costs.
- Seasonal meals dynamics: With meals representing a big portion of the CPI basket, provide tightening forward of the planting season usually pushes costs up regardless of noticed month-on-month reduction.
BusinessTimes’ take
From BusinessTimes’ perspective, the January market tendencies sign that the post-holiday reduction in staple costs is tangible, but structural value drivers, together with power and import-linked items, might mood the tempo of disinflation.
For February 2026, the outlook will largely rely on whether or not these easing tendencies in meals costs proceed, alongside secure gas provide and trade fee circumstances.
In brief, headline inflation could average modestly, however vigilance stays essential, as selective value pressures and base results might maintain upward strain in some sectors.
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