Naira weekly view: Forecast factors to N1,350–N1,420/$ vary

The Nigerian Naira settled at N1,364 to $1 within the official market final week.

Current elementary actions confirmed the CBN has been extra aggressive, promoting {dollars} on to licensed sellers to stop the speed from falling again towards January’s N1,450/$ degree.

The outlook for this week stays cautiously bullish.

The Nigerian foreign money is predicted to settle between N1,350/$1 and N1,420/$1 within the official market by the tip of this week.

Whereas the Naira has strengthened barely over the previous 7 days (a couple of 2% achieve from the N1,390/$1 degree seen earlier this month), it nonetheless faces arbitrage stress.

Purchase/promote vary reported round N1,440/$1 for purchase and N1,450/$1–1,460/$1 on the black market up to now week.

The Naira has strengthened notably in current weeks or months (4.24% over the previous month and about 9.15% during the last 12 months in some measures), transferring away from the all-time highs close to N1,717/$ in late 2024.

The Nigerian Apex Bank maintained excessive rates of interest to soak up extra liquidity, however the precise impression on the trade charge is considerably muted by robust demand for imports.

The Central Bank of Nigeria is successfully “mopping up” extra Naira by holding the Financial Coverage Charge at such degree. Speculators discover it extra expensive to borrow Naira to purchase {dollars}, supporting the steadiness of the N1,364/$1 trade charge.

The “Dangote Impact“: As of early 2026, the elevated output from the Dangote Refinery—which is nearing 700,000 barrels per day—has considerably diminished the overseas trade demand beforehand used for petroleum imports.

All eyes are on the NAFEM window (official market). If the Nigerian Central Bank fails to inject sufficient {dollars} this week, market contributors may see the unfold widen on the parallel market, placing stress on the official charge to catch up.

The pattern nonetheless leans towards minor depreciation towards the weekend as corporations settle their weekly foreign exchange commitments, except there’s a main announcement about overseas reserve will increase or vital mortgage inflows.

Total, the Naira is robust in early 2026 and is gaining floor due to exterior inflows and coverage changes.

Market observers keep cautiously optimistic about continued stability regardless of the return of elevated volatility within the world foreign exchange market.

 U.S greenback index begins first buying and selling session adverse 

The US Greenback Index (DXY), which compares the US greenback towards six main currencies, misplaced floor for the second consecutive session. It’s presently buying and selling round 97.50.

The greenback struggles as merchants undertake a cautious stance forward of key financial knowledge postponed because of the partial authorities shutdown. The January jobs report, scheduled for Wednesday, is predicted to point out a stabilized labor market, with Nonfarm Payrolls forecasted so as to add 70,000 jobs and the unemployment charge anticipated to stay regular at 4.4%.

• Friday marks the rescheduled launch of the January shopper worth index. In the meantime, preliminary knowledge confirmed that the Michigan Client Sentiment Index unexpectedly rose to a six-month excessive on Friday, boosting market confidence.
• The index elevated to 57.3 in February, exceeding the forecast of 55.0 and marking a 3rd consecutive month-to-month achieve. Most foreign money merchants anticipate the Fed to carry present rates of interest in March, with charge cuts probably in June.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent dismissed the concept that he and Donald Trump have opposing views on the foreign money, following Trump’s current remarks in regards to the greenback’s decline and Bessent’s assist of a “robust greenback coverage.” 

• When requested on CNBC, “Which is it,” between his and Trump’s feedback, Bessent mentioned, “That’s a false alternative.” He defined that the US “all the time has a powerful greenback coverage” and that officers haven’t intervened to push the greenback decrease towards the Japanese yen.
• Requested if he was fearful in regards to the greenback’s depreciation, Trump responded, “No, I believe it’s nice,” which prompted the foreign money to plunge the day earlier than. Bessent added on Friday, “The robust greenback coverage is, are we doing the issues to create a powerful backdrop for the greenback?” pointing to the administration’s insurance policies on taxes, commerce, deregulation, power, and reasserting sovereignty over vital minerals.