Nigeria’s headline inflation price moderated barely to fifteen.10% in January 2026, down from 15.15% recorded in December 2025, in response to the most recent Shopper Value Index report launched by the Nationwide Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The marginal decline of 0.05 proportion factors suggests a continued slowdown in value pressures at the beginning of the yr, following a number of months of easing inflation.
On a year-on-year foundation, inflation dropped considerably in comparison with the identical interval final yr. The January 2026 price of 15.10% is 12.51 proportion factors decrease than the 27.61% recorded in January 2025.
What the information is saying
The report additionally confirmed a contraction in costs in comparison with the earlier month. Inflation stood at –2.88% month on month in January 2026, in comparison with 0.54% in December 2025, representing a drop of three.42 proportion factors.
- In response to the NBS, this means that the overall value degree declined in January, which means the common price of products and providers fell relative to December.
- Regardless of the current easing, the broader inflation development stays elevated. The proportion change within the common Shopper Value Index for the twelve months ending January 2026 was 21.97%, in comparison with the earlier twelve-month interval.
This represents a 4.37 proportion level enhance from the 17.59% recorded in January 2025, exhibiting that underlying value pressures over the previous yr stay important.
Meals inflation plunges
Meals inflation, the biggest part of family spending, fell sharply in January, offering the most important reduction to shoppers.
- On a year-on-year foundation, meals inflation stood at 8.89%, a steep drop of 20.73 proportion factors from 29.63% recorded in January 2025.
- Month on month, meals costs declined additional to –6.02%, in comparison with –0.36% in December 2025, representing a lower of 5.66 proportion factors.
The NBS attributed the decline to falling common costs of staple gadgets, together with water yam, eggs, inexperienced peas, groundnut oil, soya beans, palm oil, maize grains, guinea corn, beans, beef, melon (egusi), cassava tubers, and cowpeas.
The twelve-month common meals inflation price for the interval ending January 2026 was 20.29%, considerably decrease than the 38.47% recorded in January 2025, indicating sustained easing in meals value pressures over the previous yr.
In the meantime, core inflation, which excludes risky agricultural produce and vitality costs, stood at 17.72% yr on yr in January 2026, down by 7.55 proportion factors from 25.27% recorded in January 2025.
On a month-on-month foundation, core inflation declined to –1.69%, in comparison with 0.58% in December 2025, exhibiting slower value will increase in non-food gadgets.
The twelve-month common core inflation price was 22.84%, representing a 4.40 proportion level decline from 27.24% recorded in January 2025.
Extra insights
In city areas, inflation stood at 15.36% yr on yr in January 2026, a pointy decline of 14.09 proportion factors from 29.45% recorded in January 2025.
- On a month-on-month foundation, city inflation fell to –2.72%, down by 3.71 proportion factors from 0.99% in December 2025, indicating falling costs in cities through the month.
- Nevertheless, the twelve-month common city inflation price remained excessive at 22.30% in January 2026, which is 3.42 proportion factors larger than the 18.88% recorded in January 2025.
- Rural inflation adopted an analogous downward development. On a year-on-year foundation, rural inflation stood at 14.44% in January 2026, down by 10.60 proportion factors from 25.04% recorded in January 2025.
Month on month, rural inflation dropped additional to –3.29%, in comparison with –0.55% in December 2025, exhibiting deeper value declines in rural areas.
The twelve-month common rural inflation price was 21.03%, considerably decrease than the 30.79% recorded in January 2025, reflecting easing value pressures over the previous yr in rural communities.
What it is best to know
January inflation figures defied analysts’ projections. BusinessTimes reported that analysts had projected January inflation to be broadly flat or edge barely larger than December.
Their projections positioned the headline determine inside the 15.15%–16.25% vary, reflecting a fragile steadiness between post-holiday easing in staple meals costs and chronic pressures from gasoline prices, seasonal provide changes, and import-linked items.
The analysts notice that January’s end result would supply an essential early sign for first-quarter financial coverage selections, at the same time as evolving liquidity circumstances and supply-side dynamics proceed to form the inflation trajectory.
