Nigeria’s non-public sector exercise slipped into contraction initially of 2026, because the Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria Buying Managers’ Index fell to 49.7 in January, down from 53.5 in December 2025, in keeping with the PMI report revealed on Monday.
The PMI studying fell under the 50.0 no-change threshold, signalling a deterioration in enterprise circumstances in contrast with the earlier month.
The index is compiled by S&P International and endorsed and adopted by the Nationwide Bureau of Statistics
The report famous that January 2026 represents the primary time because the PMI survey started in 2014 that the January studying has fallen under the 50-point threshold
What does the report say
The report learn, “The headline determine derived from the survey is the Buying Managers’ Index™ (PMI®). Readings above 50.0 sign an enchancment in enterprise circumstances on the earlier month, whereas readings under 50.0 present a deterioration.
“The headline PMI dipped to 49.7 in January, nicely down from December’s studying of 53.5 and ticking under the 50.0 no-change mark. Nonetheless, by posting near the impartial threshold, the newest determine signalled broadly steady enterprise circumstances initially of the 12 months”
The decline within the headline PMI mirrored a broad stagnation in new orders, ending a 14-month sequence of progress.
Whereas some companies reported a rise in customer numbers, others cited weak demand, leading to little total change in new enterprise volumes through the month.
Output additionally rose solely marginally in January, in step with the subdued demand circumstances.
Sector knowledge confirmed that weak point was concentrated in wholesale and retail, which recorded contraction on a seasonally adjusted foundation.
Against this, agriculture, manufacturing, and companies continued to report progress through the month, remaining above the 50-point growth threshold.
Buying exercise and shares of inputs elevated at a lot slower charges than in December, reflecting the slowdown in new orders.
Employment rises barely as backlogs fall
Regardless of weaker demand, employment continued to rise in January, extending the present sequence of job progress to eight consecutive months.
The speed of job creation remained slight, broadly in step with the tempo recorded in December.
With employment rising and new orders broadly steady, firms had been in a position to cut back their backlogs of labor for the primary time in three months, and to the most important extent since March 2025.
The report additionally confirmed a renewed improve in value pressures throughout the non-public sector. Buy costs rose sharply in January, with respondents citing larger uncooked materials prices.
Because of this, enter value inflation rose to a three-month excessive.
Employees prices additionally elevated, recording the quickest tempo of progress since July 2025, as companies reported elevating wages to encourage staff and assist offset larger dwelling prices.
These pressures fed by means of into promoting costs, with output value inflation rising to a four-month excessive. Nevertheless, S&P International famous that the tempo of promoting value inflation remained among the many weakest recorded because the COVID-19 pandemic.
Enterprise sentiment dips regardless of expectations of upper output
Enterprise sentiment weakened through the month, though companies continued to specific optimism that output would rise over the approaching 12 months. Optimistic sentiment was linked to deliberate expansions, larger inventory holdings, and expectations of elevated new orders.
Commenting on the info, Muyiwa Oni, Head of Fairness Analysis, West Africa at Stanbic IBTC Bank, stated the January PMI studying marked a notable shift in non-public sector circumstances.
“After 13 months of consecutive readings above the 50-point no-change mark, Nigeria’s non-public sector exercise deteriorated to 49.7 factors in January from 53.5 in December,” Oni stated.
He added that the slowdown was extra pronounced in wholesale and retail, whereas agriculture, companies, and manufacturing recorded progress.
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