Oil entrepreneurs say the resumption of petrol and diesel import licences by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) is aimed toward closing provide gaps and stopping gasoline shortage.
They defined that the transfer is designed to make up for shortfalls as native refineries are presently unable to satisfy Nigeria’s whole home petroleum wants.
Based on the entrepreneurs, the choice is just not focused at irritating the Dangote Petroleum Refinery however slightly displays provide realities, particularly because the refinery undergoes a significant enlargement that has affected its capability to totally meet native demand.
The entrepreneurs famous that what issues most within the downstream market is the provision and predictability of provide.
They argued {that a} managed and transparently managed import window helps hold the market liquid whereas home refineries scale up and stabilise operations.
What they’re saying
Trade stakeholders say importation has change into mandatory as a result of the Dangote Refinery continues to be in an enlargement part and can’t but meet nationwide demand constantly.
- “It’s a critical concern. The reality of the matter is that this Dangote improve will final for 3 years, to improve this plant from 650,000 to 1.4 million barrels per day,” an power knowledgeable and main downstream stakeholder who wished to stay nameless instructed BusinessTimes.
- “The reality is that Dangote is just not producing in the meanwhile; he’s getting semi-finished inventory and mixing to make a completed inventory. So, till he’s executed with the enlargement, he can not boast that he can provide all of the wants of Nigeria.”
- “In the event that they don’t complement this with additional importation, Nigeria will run out of inventory and that can carry shortage. This import licensing is well timed and strategic.”
- “If the Federal Authorities resumes import licences, it must be seen as a gap-management determination, not a reversal of the home refining coverage. The downstream market must not ever be allowed to run dry,” oil marketer Ibrahim Gambo stated.
The entrepreneurs burdened that importation, on this context, is a stabilisation device to stop shortages, value spikes, and provide disruptions.
Flashback
Hypothesis about renewed gasoline importation emerged following reviews that Nigeria might resume issuing petrol and diesel import permits as early as mid-February 2026.
These reviews advised a shift in provide dynamics and raised issues about potential implications for the Dangote Refinery.
The deliberate approvals would mark the primary import licences issued in 2026.
Imports had earlier been restricted to volumes required to cowl shortfalls in home refinery output.
The delay in issuing licences was linked partly to management adjustments on the NMDPRA, following the exit of its former chief govt, Farouk Ahmed, on December 17.
These developments signalled authorities concern a couple of potential tightening of gasoline provide amid altering market circumstances.
The renewed give attention to importation has subsequently been framed as a response to provide dangers slightly than a coverage reversal.
Extra insights
Gambo defined that Nigeria’s every day petrol consumption leaves little room for provide disruptions, whatever the variety of working refineries.
He stated demand doesn’t pause whereas refineries resolve operational challenges.
- Gas consumption is steady and unforgiving, making speedy hole protection important.
- Upkeep downtime, logistics bottlenecks, or crude provide constraints can shortly translate into shortages.
- Importation acts as a buffer to make sure provide reliability when home output falls quick.
- In the meantime, Dangote Petroleum Refinery has rejected claims that it imports completed petrol, diesel, or jet gasoline.
The refinery’s administration says it imports solely unfinished feedstocks which might be processed regionally into refined merchandise.
Based on the corporate, supplies equivalent to cracked gasoline, gentle cycle oil, and high-sulphur reformate require intensive native processing and can’t be used instantly in automobiles.
What this implies
The resumption of petrol importation underscores Nigeria’s continued reliance on international refined merchandise, with implications for the economic system and power coverage.
- Regardless of progress towards self-sufficiency by means of large-scale and modular refineries, import dependence locations stress on international change, contributes to forex depreciation, and fuels inflation.
- Import reliance runs counter to the long-term aims of the Petroleum Trade Act.
- Coastal logistics related to imports can add about N75 per litre to gasoline prices.
- Increased logistics and international change prices in the end translate into larger pump costs for customers.
Whereas importation could also be unavoidable within the quick time period, the event highlights the urgency of stabilising home refining operations to scale back publicity to exterior shocks.
What you need to know
Dangote Petroleum Refinery stated in January 2026 that it was not shutting down for upkeep and continues to function at full capability.
- The refinery claims it provides over 50 million litres of petrol every day to the Nigerian market.
- Administration insists manufacturing stays steady and uninterrupted.
- The corporate has warned that reliance on coastal logistics might push pump costs to as excessive as N1,000 per litre if extra prices are handed on to customers.
Based on the refinery, though entrepreneurs are free to decide on their evacuation strategies, coastal logistics carries important value burdens that might undermine current positive aspects from native refining.
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