South Africa’s inflation price eased to three.5% in January, strengthening expectations of a possible rate of interest lower when policymakers meet subsequent month.
The info was launched on Wednesday by Statistics South Africa in an announcement printed on its web site.
The marginal decline from 3.6% recorded in December brings inflation nearer to the central bank’s 3% goal and units the tone for financial coverage deliberations scheduled for March.
The newest figures spotlight combined value actions throughout meals classes, with notable declines in cereals, dairy, and edible oils, whereas meat costs continued to surge.
What the info is saying
Client costs rose by 3.5% year-on-year in January, barely decrease than the three.6% recorded in December. Meals inflation remained unchanged at 4.4% for the third consecutive month, though value actions various considerably throughout sub-categories.
- The annual price for cereal merchandise slowed to 0.6% in January from 2.1% in December, with white rice posting a deflation price of 11.0%, marking its eleventh consecutive month of value decline.
- Maize meal inflation dropped sharply to 2.6% from 9.5% in December, whereas oils and fat softened to 4.0% from 4.6%, with olive oil 7.9% and butter 0.7% cheaper than a 12 months in the past.
- The milk, dairy merchandise and eggs class recorded a destructive 0.5%, in comparison with destructive 1.1% in December, as contemporary full-cream milk, low-fat milk, and eggs contributed to deflation, with a tray of six eggs averaging R22.90 in January, down from R24.51 a 12 months earlier.
- Meat inflation accelerated to 13.5% from 12.6% in December, the best since December 2017, pushed by beef steak at 31.2%, stewing beef at 30.3%, beef mince at 28.0%, beef offal at 17.2%, and pork at 19.5%.
Whereas falling costs in key staples reminiscent of rice, maize meal, and dairy merchandise supplied aid to shoppers, surging meat costs proceed to exert upward strain on family budgets.
Stand up to hurry
The moderation in inflation comes as South Africa’s central bank weighs its subsequent coverage transfer amid international volatility and home value considerations. At its final assembly, the Financial Coverage Committee held the benchmark price regular at 6.75%, citing dangers from international uncertainty and the potential influence of upper meals and electrical energy costs on its revised 2026 inflation forecast of three.3%.
- Policymakers have maintained a cautious stance regardless of easing value pressures, reflecting considerations about exterior shocks and supply-side dangers.
- Meals and electrical energy costs stay key drivers of inflation volatility in Africa’s most industrialised financial system.
- The central bank’s 3% goal sits on the decrease finish of its inflation goal band, making sustained moderation crucial earlier than any aggressive easing cycle.
The January information, nonetheless, strengthens the case for a doable price lower when policymakers convene on March 26.
What you need to know
Nigeria additionally recorded a slight moderation in inflation in January, based on the Nationwide Bureau of Statistics. Headline inflation eased to fifteen.10% in January 2026 from 15.15% in December, reflecting a marginal enchancment in value stability.
- The Central Bank of Nigeria has scheduled its 304th Financial Coverage Committee assembly for February 23 and 24, 2026.
- At its November 2025 assembly, the Financial Coverage Committee retained the Financial Coverage Price at 27%, sustaining a restrictive stance to curb inflation and stabilise the international alternate market.
- The result of the upcoming assembly will probably be intently watched by traders and market members for indicators on the long run path of financial coverage.
Developments in each South Africa and Nigeria exhibit how central banks throughout Africa’s largest economies are balancing moderating inflation with lingering macroeconomic dangers as they chart their subsequent coverage steps.
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