Nigeria’s monetary system is anticipated to obtain a liquidity enhance of about N8.61 trillion in February 2026, largely pushed by maturities from Open Market Operations (OMO), Treasury payments (T-bills), and coupon funds on authorities bonds.
The projection was contained in FMDA’s Month-to-month Market Report for February 2026, which famous that the inflows will play a essential function in shaping cash market situations, fastened revenue yields, and international change dynamics within the coming weeks.
The physique for treasury and monetary market practitioners in Nigeria careworn that Nigeria’s working surroundings stays “liquidity-managed reasonably than liquidity-driven,” with CBN actions persevering with to play a central function in shaping near-term funding situations and international change dynamics.
What the information is saying
FMDA recognized OMO maturities because the dominant liquidity driver for the month, underscoring the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) continued reliance on the instrument for liquidity administration.
A breakdown of the anticipated inflows exhibits:
- OMO maturities: N4.61 trillion, accounting for about 53% of complete inflows
- Treasury payments maturities: N1.43 trillion
- FGN bond coupon funds: N448.96 billion
- Company bond coupons: N6.85 billion
- FAAC allocations: N1.97 trillion to be shared among the many federal, state, and native governments
In response to FMDA, proceeds from these maturities are anticipated to movement again into the system, doubtlessly easing funding pressures after a interval of aggressive liquidity tightening.
January liquidity squeeze units the tone
The anticipated February inflows observe a pointy liquidity contraction in January, when the CBN intensified its tightening stance.
FMDA estimates that over N6.76 trillion was withdrawn from the system via OMO operations and Treasury invoice auctions in the course of the month.
This aggressive mopping-up stored interbank charges elevated, with In a single day (OVN) and Open Purchase Again (OPR) charges trending increased, reflecting tight funding situations throughout the banking system.
Impression on yields and the naira
Mounted revenue yields remained elevated in January in contrast with December 2025, as tight liquidity and agency fee expectations dominated market sentiment.
FGN bond yields moved increased throughout most tenors, with the sharpest repricing seen within the 7–10 yr phase, pushed by provide pressures and cautious investor positioning reasonably than a shift in financial coverage expectations.
Treasury invoice yields additionally repriced upward, significantly on the 6–12 month tenors, following sustained public sale sizes and powerful cease charges.
General, the yield curve steepened modestly, suggesting traders proceed to demand increased compensation for longer-dated devices amid heavy issuance and liquidity reallocation.
Regardless of combined actions in international bond markets, FMDA famous that Nigeria’s long-dated yields have been largely influenced by home liquidity and provide dynamics, overshadowing exterior fee alerts.
FX outlook: Reinvestment and sterilisation key
The institutional treasury sellers comprising business and service provider banks in addition to low cost homes cautioned that whereas the N8.61 trillion influx might ease funding pressures, its final influence on liquidity ranges and the naira will rely on a number of elements.
These embody:
- Reinvestment behaviour of institutional traders
- CBN’s sterilisation actions via contemporary OMO and T-bill auctions
- Fiscal-side liquidity injections, significantly FAAC disbursements
In January, a mixture of rising exterior reserves, firmer oil costs, OMO auctions, and a softer U.S. greenback helped present some buffer for the naira which strengthened at about N1,380 per Greenback.
Oil costs additionally strengthened in the course of the month as geopolitical threat premiums elevated amid issues over potential U.S. motion towards Iran.
What it’s best to know
BusinessTimes had reported that in January 2026, the CBN aggressively sterilised over N15 trillion from the banking system, marking one of the crucial intensive liquidity mop-up operations in latest occasions.
The liquidity drain was pushed primarily by large-scale:
- Open Market Operations (OMO) gross sales: N8.5 trillion
- Substantial placements by banks on the Standing Deposit Facility: N2.9 trillion
- Major market Treasury invoice issuances: N3.7 trillion.
These outflows have been solely partially offset by inflows from OMO maturities and Treasury repayments, leaving the banking system considerably cash-starved by month-end.
The tightening stance noticed interbank funding stress intensify, with cash market charges, together with the Open Purchase Again and In a single day charges, rising sharply as banks competed for scarce liquidity.
Whereas February’s giant inflows—dominated by OMO maturities—might supply momentary aid, analysts say shut consideration will stay on how aggressively the CBN strikes to re-absorb liquidity and what which means for rates of interest and FX stability.
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