President Bola Tinubu has emerged as the leading candidate in a fresh 2027 presidential election projection by the Political Intelligence Group (PIG) of Politico.ng, which forecasts victories for the incumbent in 20 states if the election were held under the political conditions currently prevailing.
The projection places former Vice President Atiku Abubakar in second position with nine states, while Labour Party candidate Peter Obi is projected to win eight states, including the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).
The forecast, however, is not a prediction of the final election result. Rather, it represents an assessment of the current political landscape, with the political environment still capable of changing significantly before Nigerians vote.
Tinubu leads projection
According to the PIG assessment, Tinubu’s strongest advantage remains in the South-West, where he is projected to win all six states.
Lagos, which has been central to Tinubu’s political career, is also placed in his column. The projection further gives the President an important northern foothold with Kano among the states expected to fall to the All Progressives Congress (APC).
A victory in Kano would be particularly significant given the state’s large electorate and its importance in determining presidential contests in northern Nigeria.
The forecast suggests that Tinubu’s potential path to victory would depend not only on maintaining his traditional South-West support but also on securing sufficient backing across other regions.
That calculation could ultimately be influenced by how voters assess his administration by 2027.
The economy is likely to remain at the centre of the contest, with inflation, purchasing power, employment, security, infrastructure and the cost of living expected to feature prominently in campaign debates.
Atiku maintains northern strength
Atiku Abubakar is projected to win nine states, with the former vice president maintaining considerable strength across parts of Northern Nigeria.
Kaduna is among the states projected to favour Atiku, alongside several other states in the North-East and North-West.
His established political network and experience from previous presidential campaigns could provide him with a strong organisational base as the election approaches.
The former vice president is also expected to make economic policy a central component of his campaign.
The fuel subsidy question could become particularly important if Nigerians continue to face high transportation costs and pressure on household incomes.
Atiku’s position on subsidy and economic relief could appeal to voters frustrated by the consequences of the reforms introduced under Tinubu, although the sustainability and cost of any proposed subsidy regime would itself become a major campaign issue.
For Atiku, however, retaining a strong northern base may not be sufficient. His broader challenge would be converting that regional strength into a nationwide coalition capable of overcoming the incumbent.
Obi projected to retain key territories
Peter Obi is projected to win eight states, with the FCT and Edo among the areas placed in his column.
The forecast reflects the political support Obi built during the 2023 presidential election, when he performed strongly in several parts of the country.
His political appeal has remained closely associated with demands for improved governance, accountability, efficient management of public resources and economic transformation.
But the major question for Obi heading into 2027 will be whether he can expand beyond his established areas of strength.
Unlike an election held in the immediate aftermath of 2023, the 2027 contest is likely to be shaped by new alliances, defections, candidate selection and the evolving performance of the parties’ political structures.
Alliances could change everything
One of the biggest uncertainties surrounding the projection is the possibility of a realignment among opposition forces.
A coordinated alliance involving major opposition figures or parties could dramatically alter the current calculations, particularly if votes that are presently divided among Atiku and Obi were consolidated behind a single candidate.
Similarly, changes in the economy, security situation and public perception of the Tinubu administration could affect the President’s projected advantage.
Regional, religious and ethnic considerations may also influence political mobilisation, although their impact cannot be assumed to determine individual voting decisions. Economic conditions, candidate credibility, party machinery and government performance could prove equally important.
The eventual choice of running mates could further reshape the contest as the leading candidates attempt to construct geographically and politically balanced tickets.
Projection is not election result
The PIG forecast should therefore be viewed as a snapshot of the political landscape rather than a definitive indication of what will happen in 2027.
If the election were held under the circumstances assessed by the group, Tinubu would emerge ahead with 20 states, followed by Atiku with nine and Obi with eight.
But considerable political and economic developments remain possible before election day.
