Nigeria witnessed a historic shift in its inflation dynamics in September 2025, because the Nationwide Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported the nation’s first month-on-month meals deflation in over 13 years.
In response to the newest Shopper Value Index (CPI) information, headline inflation dropped sharply to 18.02%, down from 20.12% recorded in August 2025, marking one of many steepest month-to-month declines in latest reminiscence.
The most important driver behind this decline was the meals inflation part, which moderated to 16.87% in September, in comparison with 21.87% in August. Much more notable was the month-on-month meals inflation fee, which printed at -1.57%, signaling an precise fall in meals costs throughout the month. That is the primary detrimental month-to-month studying since February 2012, when meals inflation stood at -0.13%.
Whereas the headline decline displays a mix of things, essentially the most vital contributors embody seasonal developments in meals costs, statistical base results, and the latest rebasing of the inflation basket by the NBS.
The harvest season throughout main agricultural areas has helped enhance meals provide, significantly for staples akin to maize, yam, rice, and greens, which usually exert downward stress on costs round this time of the yr.
On the identical time, the rebasing of the inflation basket, which entails updating the products and companies used to calculate inflation to higher mirror present consumption patterns, has helped alter worth weightings throughout classes. This technical adjustment, mixed with a excessive comparative base from the earlier yr, additional accentuated the obvious slowdown in inflation.
Meals costs cool off in September
In response to Nairametrics’ Meals Value Survey, the costs of a number of staple meals objects skilled notable moderation in September, offering some reduction to customers after months of persistent will increase.
- For example, the value of an enormous bag of pepper dropped considerably by 25%, promoting for a median of N60,000 in September in comparison with N80,000 within the earlier month. Curiously, costs have continued to ease in October, with the identical bag now averaging round N45,000.
- Equally, the common worth of a kilogram of mackerel (Titus) fish declined by 12.5%, promoting for about N6,000 in comparison with the prior month.
- In the identical development, a 50kg bag of native rice noticed a 9.7% discount, with the common worth falling to N65,000 in September. The downward trajectory continued into October, with market surveys displaying additional worth declines to round N57,000 per bag.
The sustained decline throughout key meals objects displays the influence of seasonal harvest provides and improved market availability, contributing to the general cooling in meals inflation throughout the interval.
Regardless of this momentary reduction, consultants warning that Nigeria’s broader inflation outlook stays fragile, with the IMF projecting an annual inflation of 23%. Structural challenges akin to excessive transport and power prices, forex pressures, and logistical inefficiencies in meals distribution proceed to pose dangers to sustained worth stability.
Nonetheless, the September information provides a glimmer of optimism, suggesting that focused agricultural interventions and improved meals provide chains might play a vital function in moderating worth pressures going ahead.
In essence, Nigeria’s first recorded meals deflation in over a decade gives not simply statistical significance but in addition a second of reflection on the nation’s inflation administration efforts. Whether or not this marks the start of a sustained downward development or a short lived seasonal dip will depend upon how properly macroeconomic and coverage situations align within the coming months.
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