UBA vs. FirstHoldco: Which presents higher worth to buyers in 2025? 

Buyers have continued to reassess the banking sector amid ongoing recapitalization efforts and different macro-economic variables.

The main target at present is on UBA and FirstHoldco; two of the Tier-1 banks and members of the FUGAZ group have each delivered robust earnings in recent times, however with various danger profiles and development methods.

As of October 20, 2025, UBA’s shares have gained 26.3% year-to-date (YtD), buying and selling at N42.95, which represents about 85% of its 52-week excessive.

FirstHoldco, alternatively, has recorded a 15.9% YtD achieve, closing at N32.50, and at the moment sits 75% beneath its 52-week excessive.

Nevertheless, each shares have underperformed the broader market index, which has superior 45.68% YtD.  Final 12 months, UBA returned 33% YtD, whereas FirstHoldco returned 19% YtD.

Verdict:

• UBA seems to have sustained momentum as a result of its share value has maintained regular development, gaining 26.3% YtD and buying and selling near 85% of its 52-week excessive

• FirstHoldco, alternatively, could supply extra upside potential as a result of its share value, although up 15.9% YtD, nonetheless trades at about 75% of its 52-week excessive

Monetary efficiency and earnings energy  

Each UBA and FirstHoldCo have maintained constant earnings over the previous 5 years, although 2025 has seen some stress from honest worth losses, impairment losses, and working bills.

Even so, each lenders have benefited from Nigeria’s high-yield surroundings, which continues to drive curiosity revenue development throughout the banking sector.

UBA closed H1 2025 with a pre-tax revenue of N388.413 billion, representing a 3.28% year-on-year decline from H1 2024.

• The dip was largely on account of web buying and selling and overseas trade loss in comparison with achieve in H1 2024 and likewise an increase in working bills, particularly worker profit bills.

• Nevertheless, at its core degree, efficiency is spectacular with curiosity revenue of N1.334 trillion up 33%.

FirstHoldCo, in the meantime, reported a pre-tax revenue of N356.1 billion for H1 2025, down 13.4% year-on-year, additionally on account of honest worth losses of N69.7 billion, in comparison with a achieve of N423.9 billion in H1 2024.

• Nevertheless, it recorded stronger core revenue, as curiosity revenue surged to N1.43 trillion from N947.7 billion in the identical interval final 12 months, reflecting strong development in each loans and funding securities.

Over a five-year horizon, FirstHoldCo has grown sooner on the backside line, accumulating N1.35 trillion in PAT at a compound annual development fee (CAGR) of 49%.

Alternatively, UBA carried out higher in absolute numbers accumulating revenue of N1.78 trillion however at a CAGR of 46.5%.

Verdict: 

• UBA stays the stronger performer in absolute earnings.

• FirstHoldco reveals sooner development potential and enhancing fundamentals that might translate into larger returns over time if it sustains this trajectory.

Valuation overview

Whereas each UBA and FirstHoldCo have carried out properly, they now sit at completely different valuation phases.

valuation, UBA’s P/E ratio of 1.98x means buyers are paying N1.98 for each N1 it earns, whereas FirstHoldco’s P/E of two.08x means buyers are paying N2.08 for each N1 of earnings.

This reveals that UBA is barely cheaper, providing higher present worth, whereas FirstHoldco trades at a small premium as a result of buyers anticipate it to develop sooner.

Nevertheless, with the anticipated dilution from their recapitalization, each banks’ earnings per share (EPS) will possible decline in 2025. This might make their valuations look a bit larger (much less low cost).

Verdict:

Based mostly on valuation and earnings outlook, UBA stays the higher purchase for now, it’s cheaper on a P/E foundation, has stronger present earnings (EPS N8.86 in H1 2025), and faces much less dilution danger from recapitalization. This provides it higher near-term worth and stability.

FirstHoldco, alternatively, could supply higher long-term upside. Its barely larger P/E ratio displays buyers’ perception in its sooner earnings development potential.

Efficiency metrics and danger profile (in hindsight) 

Wanting again at 2024 efficiency, UBA demonstrated stronger danger administration and earnings stability, mirrored in its decrease price of danger (3.18%) and NPL ratio (5.6%), regardless that its ROAE moderated to twenty-eight%.

FirstHoldco, alternatively, delivered a robust rebound in profitability, with ROAE at 29.8% up 32% year-on-year, however this got here with larger credit score danger, as proven by its elevated price of danger (4.7%) and NPL ratio (10.2%).

That mentioned, the 2025 monetary 12 months may shift the dynamics completely, particularly with ongoing recapitalization efforts, financial coverage adjustments, and overseas trade volatility.

If each banks maintain their 2024 momentum: 

• UBA is prone to retain stability and constant earnings, interesting extra to conservative buyers.

• FirstHoldco may outperform on development, offered it controls credit score danger and leverages its broader revenue base.

Whole shareholder return perspective 

From a complete return standpoint, UBA continues to outperform. It at the moment presents a dividend yield of seven.57%, and when mixed with its 26.32% YtD achieve, buyers have earned a complete return of 33.89% in 2025.

FirstHoldco, in contrast, presents a dividend yield of 1.85% and a capital achieve of 15.86%, translating to a complete return of 17.71%.

This highlights the distinction in investor enchantment:

• UBA has rewarded shareholders with regular revenue and robust value appreciation, reflecting sustained confidence.

• FirstHoldco presents decrease instant returns, however stays a development story in progress, particularly if it converts its robust revenue base into larger earnings post-recapitalization.

General, each banks stay strong performs in Nigeria’s monetary sector, however their enchantment differs:

• UBA stands out for its stability, stronger earnings base, higher valuation, and superior complete returns, making it the higher near-term purchase for buyers looking for revenue and consistency.

• FirstHoldco, in the meantime, presents larger long-term development potential, however its larger credit score danger, thinner yield, and sure EPS dilution recommend it’s higher fitted to buyers with an extended time horizon and better danger tolerance.