Aradel Holdings rated ‘Purchase’ by Rencap with N1,040 goal 

Renaissance Capital Africa has issued a “Purchase” suggestion on Aradel Holdings Plc, forecasting a possible 62.6% upside from a reference worth of N640.20.

The projection was disclosed within the agency’s fairness analysis report launched on October 21, 2025, titled “Nigeria Oil and Fuel: Restoration on the Horizon.”

Within the report, Renaissance Capital set a goal worth of N1,040.90 for Aradel, reflecting confidence in regards to the firm’s progress outlook as reforms proceed to reshape Nigeria’s oil and gasoline sector.

The analysts famous that current Federal Authorities reforms are respiratory new life into the oil sector’s worth chain, with Nigeria’s crude manufacturing, which has remained under its OPEC quota of 1.5 million barrels per day for the reason that pandemic, now starting to get better.

In Could 2025, President Bola Tinubu signed an Govt Order introducing a performance-based incentive system for oil producers.

• Underneath the brand new Upstream Petroleum Operations Value Effectivity Incentives Order, firms that efficiently scale back working prices in onshore, shallow-water, and deep offshore fields can take pleasure in tax reliefs of as much as 20% on their annual taxes.

This reform is likely one of the Federal Authorities’s efforts to spice up the sector for the reason that Petroleum Business Act (PIA) was signed in 2021.

“Encouragingly, Nigeria’s lively rig depend has grown from 29 in January 2024 to 40 in September 2025, exhibiting regular progress towards the two million barrels per day manufacturing goal by FY26,” the agency said. 

Renaissance Capital additionally famous that Aradel is effectively positioned to learn from this restoration.

Capitalizing on the advantages 

Renaissance Capital analysts anticipate the oil and gasoline sector to enhance, with Aradel and Seplat effectively positioned to learn from present business tailwinds.

“As an built-in firm with refining capability, Aradel is extra tax-efficient underneath the Petroleum Business Act (PIA) and delivered larger return on capital employed (ROCE) of twenty-two% in FY24,” they said. 

The analysts additionally famous that Aradel’s twin position as each an oil producer and modular refinery proprietor offers it a bonus underneath the Home Crude Oil Provide Obligation (DCSO), which requires producers to provide a part of their crude to native refineries.

By directing a part of its output to its personal refinery, Renaissance Capital famous that Aradel meets this obligation effectively whereas additionally supporting its progress.

The Nigerian oil and gasoline sector has not too long ago begun to achieve constructive sentiment within the monetary markets, rising 8.31% in October, with Aradel taking part on this development.

Market development 

Aradel Holdings recorded a month-to-date acquire of 9.24% in October and a year-to-date return of 12.34%, outperforming the NGX Oil and Fuel Index, which is up 0.76% year-to-date.

The inventory started 2025 at N598 however fell consecutively from January via early Q2, reaching a low of N448.00 in April.

From Could, presumably pushed by information of Federal Authorities reforms, the inventory rebounded with an 18.3% acquire.

Though it skilled minor declines in June and August, bullish momentum intensified in September, pushing the worth above N600 to shut at N615.

October has sustained this upward development, with the inventory rising 9.24% to N671.80 as of the shut of buying and selling on October 21, 2025.