Nigeria’s headline inflation is predicted to say no for the seventh consecutive month in October 2025, with analysts projecting a spread of 16.20% to 17.76%, down from 18.02% in September as reported by the Nationwide Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The anticipated moderation is pushed largely by easing meals inflation, improved FX circumstances, and beneficial provide dynamics throughout key commodities.
Nevertheless, persistent home value pressures, particularly from vitality and transport, are anticipated to sluggish the tempo of disinflation.
Regardless of these constraints, consultants agree that the softer inflation image strengthens the case for an additional Financial Coverage Fee (MPR) minimize on the subsequent MPC assembly.
What consultants are saying
Analysis and Insights lead, Norrenberger Monetary Group, Samuel Oyekanmi
Oyekanmi famous that inflation is prone to ease barely in October 2025, supported by the continued moderation in meals costs. He defined that “regardless of the beneficial meals inflation outlook, rising home vitality prices, notably LPG and petrol, might limit the pace of disinflation”. In response to him, the softer inflation trajectory strengthens the case for an further coverage price minimize on the subsequent MPC assembly.
Head of Analysis at Arthur Steven Asset Administration Restricted, Abdulsalam Ayoade
Ayoade highlighted that Nigeria’s headline inflation has now eased for six consecutive months, pushed largely by waning meals inflation and improved FX stability. He expects this downward pattern to increase into October, projecting inflation to fall additional to about 16.51%. With disinflation gaining momentum and financial circumstances turning into extra supportive, he additionally anticipates that the MPC will ship one other 50bps minimize within the MPR at its last assembly of the 12 months.
Portfolio Supervisor at CFG Africa, Bolujoko Mayowa
Mayowa acknowledged that the disinflationary pattern ought to proceed into October, helped by beneficial supply-side circumstances and statistical results. He famous that meals costs remained secure throughout the month because of larger market provide from the height harvest season, a improvement that helped ease month-on-month meals inflation pressures. FX stability, with the naira buying and selling under N1,480/$, additionally restricted imported inflation pass-through, notably for important gadgets.
He added that base results from elevated worth ranges within the corresponding interval of 2024 would additional suppress the year-on-year studying. Nevertheless, lingering cost-push elements—comparable to rising fuel costs from provide disruptions and non permanent PMS shortage that pushed transport fares larger—might exert some upward affect.
Contemplating these dynamics, Mayowa tasks that inflation will decline in October, albeit at a slower tempo than in September, settling inside a spread of 16.20% to 17.76%. Taking these dynamics into consideration, we venture that the inflation price will decline in October, although not as sharply as recorded within the earlier month, settling inside a spread of 16.20% to 17.76%.
Elements that affected inflation in October 2025
- Moderating meals costs: Meals inflation remained the most important driver of the projected decline. Elevated provide from the height harvest season improved market availability of main staples, easing month-on-month worth pressures.
- FX stability: The naira traded under N1,480/$ often in October, lowering imported inflation pass-through on meals, family requirements, and manufactured items.
- Rising home vitality prices: Increased LPG costs, pushed by provide disruptions, added upward stress to family cooking and heating prices. Petrol shortage in choose states pushed transport fares larger, limiting the tempo of disinflation.
- Improved provide circumstances: Higher logistics, improved native manufacturing flows, and easing bottlenecks helped stabilize costs throughout meals and non-food gadgets.
Nairametrics’ take
The anticipated slowdown in October inflation means that Nigeria’s path to easing worth pressures is lastly taking form. Higher meals provide and a steadier FX market are serving to calm issues down, however the actuality is that rising vitality prices and transport hiccups are nonetheless protecting households on edge. Worth stability is bettering, however it’s not out of the woods but.
Most analysts agree inflation will drop once more, however how far it falls relies upon largely on how shortly vitality points are resolved and whether or not the naira can maintain its floor. A softer quantity in October might give the MPC room to chop charges yet another time this 12 months, although they’ll nonetheless tread rigorously given the structural challenges that haven’t gone away.
Ultimately, October’s inflation studying will present whether or not Nigeria is genuinely shifting right into a extra secure pricing setting or just benefitting from seasonal and base results. Both approach, will probably be a key marker for a way the remainder of the 12 months unfolds.
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