Nigeria’s economic system is projected to submit stronger development in Q2 2025, with analysts forecasting actual GDP growth between 3.2% and three.9%.
This is able to outpace each Q1 2025 development of three.13% and the corresponding interval of 2024, reflecting improved macro stability and rising non-oil output.
The optimistic outlook is underpinned by the latest GDP rebasing, relative change charge stability, and growth throughout monetary companies, telecoms, and trade.
In Q1 2025, GDP development was underpinned by resilience in companies and different non-oil sectors regardless of headwinds within the oil trade; Q2 is anticipated to construct on this momentum.
The Nationwide Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is anticipated to launch the official GDP report later this month.
Knowledgeable projections
Head of Analysis at Norrenberg, Samuel Oyekanmi
The lately concluded rebasing of the GDP framework is anticipated to sharpen visibility into sectoral efficiency; an element analysts imagine will underpin stronger development in Q2. The Buying Managers’ Index (PMI) averaged 52.2 factors in Q2, in contrast with 51.3 factors in Q1 2025 and 48.0 factors in Q2 2024, reflecting improved growth in enterprise actions.
In keeping with Samuel Oyekanmi, Head of Analysis at Norrenberg, “The Nigerian economic system seems effectively positioned to document stronger development in Q2 2025, outpacing each Q1 2025 and the corresponding interval of 2024.” Oyekanmi initiatives GDP development within the vary of three.5% to three.7%, citing the rebasing train and growth within the non-oil economic system as key tailwinds.
Head of Analysis at Afrinvest West Africa, Damilare Asimiyu
Damilare forecast development between 3.2% and three.9%, pushed by a strong non-oil sector anticipated to broaden by 4.1%–4.6%, whereas the oil economic system is projected to submit a modest 2.0%–2.6% achieve.
The subdued oil efficiency displays comparatively flat crude output of 1.48mbpd in Q2 (vs. 1.47mbpd in Q1), alongside weaker oil costs averaging $68.70/barrel, in contrast with $73.66 in Q1. Analysts spotlight that the “Trump tariff impact” has dragged world demand, weighing on crude oil earnings.
Then again, the non-oil sector continues to achieve traction. The companies sector stays the first development driver, with finance & insurance coverage benefiting from bank recapitalisation, whereas telecommunications exercise is buoyed by tariff liberalisation. The commercial sector can also be anticipated to submit an enchancment, with development nudging to three.6% in Q2 from 3.4% in Q1, helped by easing inflationary pressures and FX stability.
Conversely, the agriculture sector is projected to stay underwhelming, rising beneath its long-term common of three%. Persistent insecurity in main food-producing states comparable to Benue and Plateau continues to dampen productiveness.
Vice Chairman at Highcap Securities Prof. David Adonri
For Prof. David Adonri, the expansion outlook is bolstered by macroeconomic stability. “Contemplating the moderating inflation, secure forex and growing overseas reserves, GDP is anticipated to have grown in Q2 2025,” he said.
Key drivers of anticipated GDP development for Q2 2025
- GDP rebasing: Enhances visibility of fast-growing sectors, notably companies and telecoms.
- Macro stability: Inflation is easing, FX volatility has moderated, and reserves are bettering.
- Enterprise exercise: PMI of 52.2 signifies stronger private-sector output.
- Non-oil momentum: Companies, telecoms, and trade proceed to broaden, offsetting oil weak spot.
Nairametrics’ take
Nigeria’s economic system is about to document sooner development in Q2 2025 in comparison with the primary quarter, as macro indicators level to stability and renewed confidence. The naira traded inside a comparatively slender band, providing aid to producers and import-dependent companies.
The quarter was additional supported by a decline in gasoline costs, which helped ease enterprise working prices and moderated inflationary pressures. On the capital markets aspect, the Nigerian Trade posted a 13.54% achieve in Q2, its strongest efficiency since early 2024 when it surged 39.84%.
General, the combination of FX stability, decrease vitality prices, and inventory market rebound alerts stronger GDP momentum in Q2, underpinned by improved circumstances within the non-oil economic system.
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