Nigeria’s inflation trajectory confirmed a notable enchancment in October 2025, with the headline inflation fee easing to 16.05%, a major decline from the 18.02% recorded in September 2025.
The Nationwide Bureau of Statistics (NBS), which launched the most recent figures on Monday, famous that the year-on-year headline inflation fee stood at 17.82%, decrease than the 33.88% recorded in October 2024.
In keeping with the Bureau, this means that headline inflation decreased in comparison with the identical month final 12 months, although based mostly on a special base 12 months (November 2009).
The NBS additional defined: “On a month-on-month foundation, the Headline inflation fee in October 2025 was 0.93%, which was 0.21% larger than the speed recorded in September 2025 (0.72%). Which means in October 2025, the speed of improve within the common value degree was larger than the speed of improve within the common value degree in September 2025.”
Rural vs city inflation
In keeping with the NBS, the city inflation fee in October 2025 stood at 15.65%, representing a 20.73 percentage-point decline from the 36.38% recorded in October 2024. On a month-on-month foundation, city inflation rose to 1.14% in October 2025, a rise of 0.40% in comparison with 0.74% in September 2025.
The Bureau added that the twelve-month common city inflation fee was 22.68% in October 2025, which is 11.84 proportion factors decrease than the 34.52% reported in October 2024.
For rural inflation, the NBS reported a year-on-year fee of 15.86% in October 2025—15.73 proportion factors decrease than the 31.59% recorded in October 2024. Month-on-month, rural inflation moderated to 0.45%, a decline of 0.22% from 0.67% in September 2025.
The twelve-month common rural inflation fee stood at 20.81% in October 2025, down by 9.42 proportion factors in comparison with the 30.24% recorded in October 2024.
Meals inflation
The meals inflation fee in October 2025 stood at 13.12% on a year-on-year foundation, representing a 26.04 percentage-point decline from the 39.16% recorded in October 2024. The NBS famous that the numerous drop within the annual meals inflation determine is essentially because of the change within the base 12 months.
On a month-on-month foundation, meals inflation printed at -0.37% in October 2025, a rise of 1.21% in comparison with the -1.57% recorded in September 2025.
In keeping with the NBS, the upward motion within the month-to-month determine was pushed by will increase within the common costs of a number of meals objects, together with contemporary onions, oranges, pineapples, shrimp, unshelled groundnuts, greens equivalent to ugu and okazi leaf, and numerous kinds of meat equivalent to goat meat, cow tail, and liver.
The typical annual meals inflation fee for the twelve months ending October 2025 was 21.96%, which is 16.16 proportion factors decrease than the 38.12% recorded in October 2024.
NBS knowledge confirms Nairametrics’ forecast
The most recent knowledge confirms Nairametrics’ earlier forecast that the October inflation fee would seemingly settle inside the 16.20% to 17.76% vary, down from 18.02% in September.
Analysts who spoke to Nairametrics attributed the anticipated moderation to easing meals inflation, improved international alternate situations, and beneficial provide dynamics throughout key commodities.
They famous that the decline within the October inflation fee resulted from a number of components, together with moderating meals costs, elevated foreign exchange stability, and extra steady vitality prices.
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